Stephan and Martin

Stephan on his wedding morning. Martin, supplying the booze, the Best Man. I have known Stephan from '03 when we met by work and friends ever since. He began his career shifting €millions for Swiss Re then Horizon21; he is now with a pe advisory firm in Mayfair.

So we meet John first : John at Proctor & Gamble selling "chemical products" which I think means hair and beauty products. He tells me of his time in Cincinnati which amuses him as much as me. No doubt, a lot of drinking involved. His girlfriend, Alex, at the Gagosian which is London's most important art gallery. Then James in Manhattan who started a nuts business now in 600 stores across the Big Apple. James's wife in Singapore trying a case for the United Nations, where she works "with a smile on her face" , James tells us (before that, she was at the fearsome Latham & Watkins Law). Esther, from Scotland, had to change her honors thesis on the Middle East thanks to the Second Intifada in '00, which forced her to re-write several chapters ("it could have waited a year" she says); more recently Esther trekked across Iran and before that, investing money for one of the world's richest men. Ryan flies in from Portland, Oregon, where he is @ WebMD and Magnus, from Singapore. I don't know what Magnus does but he reminds me of The Matrix. Martin received his PhD from St Andrews and adds a further quiet elegance to the group.

Tegernsee

Sonnet and I depart T5 on Friday for Bavaria, pictured, and Stephan and Barbara's nuptials. I have not been to Tegernsee which is 50 km south of Munich and a gateway into the Alps which tower, layered, before us. A drive would eventually go from our 700 ft sea-level to the Jungfrau in Switzerland at 4,158 m. Austria not far away either.

Upon arrival in Munich, we catch a train from Munich Central on the BOB to our destination - Seehotel Luitpold on the lake - with just enough time to change for an Oktoberfest themed get-togteher at Gebirgsschutzenhutte in the mountain forests. The suggested attire "Lederhosen" but I demure - in fact, no way, Dear Reader, am I getting into leather knee-length breeches and Timberland boots. I draw my age-appropriate limits at tapered jeans and Converse "All Stars."

It is a loud, raucous, and happy evening which Stephan begins by tapping the keg. And off we go.

"If a playwright tried to see eye to eye with everybody, he would get the worst case of strabismus since Hannibal lost an eye trying to count his nineteen elephants during a snowstorm crossing the Alps."

--James Thurber

Wimbledon Club

Martin, as you may recall, our neighbor who was born in the house he lives in and remembers The Evacuation during the Great W. His mother, Kiddee Godfree, won Wimbledon a couple times in the '20s so Martin a Wimbledon member and, since this is quite a thing, I wonder : how I can become one, too?

So the club has 375 "full members," (including Martin, Martin tells me) and about 100 temporary playing members and a number of honorary guys like past Wimbledon singles champions (not doubles - too dilutive). In order to join, an applicant must obtain "letters of support" from 4 existing full members, two of whom must have known the applicant for at least 3 years. The name then added to the Candidates' List. And then you wait, Martin says smiling, "30, 40 or 50 years. "

Photo of a streaker during a match between Maria Sharapova and Elena Dementiva in 2006. They probably chucked the dude in The Tower.

Another Day, Another Sunset

Ah, the spring of '11. Memorable. I now expect the morning sun which is when it gets dangerous.

Thames at Putney.

Yo, Groceries

The last time I saw John, pictured, he was the finance director for a friend's family business. Now he is the CFO of Sainsburys, the UK''s 3rd largest grocery with over 900 stores (16% mkt share) and 150,000 employees turning £20 B sales earning shareholders £710 M in 2010. Yesterday's market cap : £6,339 M. Not too shabby. John perfect for the role, too - neither showy nor overly enthusiastic. He instills confidence and .. calm. Let the CEO do all the drama and John Davan does just that - Davan viewed as one of those "celebrity CEOs". Sort of like a celebrity chef. But together they get the job done son nobody's complaining.

Photo from Sainsburys.com

US house prices down 33%. This worse than the decline during the Great Depression.

Par

Par Ardvisson from Sweden, pictured - my idol in 7th-8th grade. Ardvisson won the 100 m butterfly at the 1980 Moscow Olympics having set the world record two months earlier in Austin, Texas. He held the record 12 months until broken by American William Paulus who swam 53.81 vs. Arvidsson's 54.15 (Phelps went 49.82 in August '09). Between 1976 and 1983 Ardvisson was Swedish champion 22X and held the Swedish record in the 200 butterfly until 2008. Holy catfish. After graduating UC Berkeley he went to HBS and now business somewhere.

Madeleine and I walk the dog. Madeleine: "Why do people shave their pubic hair?"

Me: "Um . . ."

Madeleine: "I mean like swimmers. And bicyclist. Why do they do that ?"

Me: "Oh, well, it makes swimmers go faster and I guess cyclist feel different, like, smooth or something. When they shave their legs."

Madeleine: "Yeah. I wonder what it's like."

Me: "It is kind of silly, really. One day you will shave your legs every day. Just like I shave my face."

Madeleine: "That's a lot of work, isn't it Dad?"

Me: "Yep."

Madeleine: "Do you have to do it?"

Me: "Shave?"

Madeleine: "Grow up."

Me: "What do you think Auntie Katie does?"

Madeleine: "Does?"

Me: "Yeah. During the day. For work."

Madeleine: "Op Ed Project."

Me: "More, please."

Madeleine: "Well, first she sleeps in. Then she gets up and goes to her office. And talks on the phone and works on her computer and stuff."

Me: "That's pretty good. Do you think she works late at night?"

Madeleine: "Yes. She's a night owl. Like me."

Me: "Yep."

Madeleine: "And she's a movie star."

Jelly Beans

One more from bank holiday Monday, this time outside Harrods in Knightsbridge. There is a moment, before lunch, without a plan. This the best part of the day.

Pieter Hugo

We visit the V&A's "Figures & Fictions, Contemporary South African Photography" yesterday. Pieter Hugo's image, pictured, from "The Hyena and Other Men" series extraordinary - "it represents one of the travelling sellers of traditional medicines from Nigeria who tame hyenas for street performances" (the guide tells us).

Hugo born in '76 and began his career as a photojournalist.

Carlie Gidman / LinkedIn IPO

2004 photo of diver Carlie Gidman by Anderson & Low benefitting the Elton John AIDS Foundation. Gidman competed in the Sydney Olympics. Since, she has been a "Senior Account Manager" for a number of Aussie companies including GAS, Q Ltd, and 3D Interactive. From November '10, she chucked all that and now backpacks the world, returning to Sydney in 2012. Good on her. Source: LinkedIn.

So... LinkedIn . . becomes the first social media company to list, which it does 19 May. LinkedIn priced $45 a share by Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan Chase , raising $352 M. Trading's first-day sees the stock hit $92 suggesting the underwriters mis-priced the deal. And why care? Founders rich and vc's happy etc. &c. But consider : most IPOs enjoy a modest 15% bump post IPO, according to Richard Green at Carnegie Mellon. LinkedIn could have raised more money instead of giving it away to day-traders. The company paid 5% of the offering to i banks, afterall - cannot LinkedIn expect a minimum professional expertise ?

And here is the further rub : LinkedIn's IPO created hundreds of millions of dollars for special clients of the banks, who receive allotments of pre-IPO stock . I was gifted these shares back in the day (not enough, never enough) and it is, indeed, a risk-free participation in a hot listing. What's a little dilution among friends ?

The i banks argue that tech cos. difficult to value given the early-ish nature of these businesses but this is their job, to price fairly, and build a book. If Wall Street wants to keep SV it needs to get real. Google took shares strait to the public and I think more similar ballsy moves to come. Hope so.

South Ken

We head to Chinatown for dim sum and pig out on all sorts of things I cannot recall. Chinese food, dude. Madeleine wants chicken's feet (which I reject) since I dared the kids to try it a couple years ago now they think it is some kind of delicacy. I think the Chinese are even, like,woa, somebody ordered that shit.

But anyways, here we are, giving each other the Obama rock over our meal , gluttons that we are. After that it is South Kensington and a coffee bar for Dad (pictured) then the V&A where I let the children run the center courtyard+fountain unencumbered.

How lucky Sonnet and I are to share these glorious precious personalities right on the edge of change. We are well aware the teenage years at the next corner and the spirit sooner, still. I dance around subjects which mortify Eitan while Madeleine keen ; better left no surprises nor confusions and I ask Sonnet : What will you divulge of yours? Average age of menstruation in the USA, I read in USA Today, ten-years, seven months. 15% of girls begin puberty age-8. Me, I can't wait for what they become.

Escalator Underground

These kiddos are cool cats, pictured. Did you know under-11s free on the tube? First time I've gotten anything for free in this city.

Madeleine has suggested hints of interest in Justin Bieber and who can blame her? I come down hard on Eitan's snarky remarks "Everybody hates him" and so fair enough. To the boy's credit he can name 3 Bieber songs. Yet it is Madeleine's decision to check out the tweenie heart-throb so I happily buy her Bieber's CD @ HMV Picadilly. I further get on Eitan's case as the boy refuses to visit the impressionists @ the National Gallery choosing, instead, to sit on a bench. Madeleine's mind open , at least, to Bieber and the finest paintings on offer anywhere. My opinion. She and I see van Gogh's "Sunflowers", Monet's "Lilly Pads" and Pissaro's "Paris Street in Winter." I promise to keep the tour to three only but slip in another handful. We walk hand-to-hand through the crowds - mainly, you see, to pull me along.

Me: "There is a reason people from all over the world come here, the National Gallery, to see the paintings."

Eitan: "Yeah well they are boring."

Me: "You haven't even checked them out. How do you know?"

Eitan: "We studied them in school"

Me: "You should appreciate these treasures are right in front of you and for free, for Pete's sake."

Madeleine: "Yeah, Eitan, for Pete's sake."

Eitan: "It's not my fault that I don't find them interesting."

Me: "Well too bad for you."

Madeleine: "Yeah too bad for you."

Me: "Thank you Madeleine but I've got it covered."

Madeleine: "Can I go to the gift shop now?"

Harrods Food Hall

Bank holiday Monday. I drop Sonnet at the V&A, where I park the car, and begin my day with the Shakespeares. All mine. Sonnet prepares for a lecture tomorrow evening then ball gowns and Italy - her next major exhibition which she presents to the museum's Exhibitions Committee in June; the EC headed by new Director Martin Roth who replaces Mark Jones after ten-years. Roth the former Director General of the Dresden state art collections for the past 10-years and Italy will be his first Major expo. Sonnet feels that, word.

The kids want to go to Harrods - specifically, the food hall - double specifically the confectionery hall, pictured. They have been here before, oh boy, and like missiles with a homing system they drage me along. We spend an hour milling around looking at various bon bons, chocolates, jelly beans and so on and so forth. Eitan and Madeleine have some fire-power, too : about seven weeks of unpaid allowance @ £5 a week and believe you me they know the score. Eitan buys himself a double chocolate chip cookie ("oo ooh this is sooo good") and Madeleine goes for a couple of those giant sucker-sticks. All this before 11AM. Off to a good start.

Madeleine: "How much is that water-melon thing?" (sugar glazed water-melon slice in melange of similar sugaries)

Salesclerk: "Why hello there. That one is about six pounds."

Madeleine: "Well, how much is that one. The cherry."

Salesclerk to me: "It is by the weight you know."

Me:

Salesclerk: "It is 58p"

Madeleine to me quietly: "Sheesh, Dad, that is an expensive treat."

Me: "You would barely taste it, I bet."

Madeleine: "For that much money? It would be, like, the best cherry I've ever eaten."

Me: "Hope so."

Madeleine: "Know so."

Good, Cod!

Madeleine prepares dinner." I am making baked cod with prosciutto and vegetables and fish kabobs. This is the first proper meal that I have done without help."

I have football coming out my ears. It begins last night with ManU vs. Barcelona in the UEFA Cup Finals which the Red Devils lose 3-1 failing to avenge their 2-nil defeat in '09 that Eitan and I watched at a bar in Greenwich Village, the boy exiting in sobs and me worried about the social services taking us in. This morning, we are at the Carshalton Athletic Tournament (think England, 1960s, blue-collar) where KPR plays five eight-minute games qualifying for the knock-out round where they lose in Round One. Bummer. We then dart across Surrey to Chessington for the Pro-Directory Elite Academy Tournament and another 8 games on astro-turf. Fast and furious. This followed by awards and recognitions and etc. &c. At some point I excuse myself from the sidelines to sit in the car to listen to Radio 4 and fall asleep - who knows how long ?

Rusty eats a half-bag of dog food and Aneta returns home, 4AM, to find him laid out on the kitchen floor requiring four bowls of water. Probably saved his life. Sonnet reports that today he "shits like a sausage factory."

"Woof woof woof woof." [Translation: I feel like hell.]

--Rusty

"Always start out with a larger pot than what you think you need."

--Julia Child

Thames Facing Barnes

I watch the sun set over the river from the Fulham football stadium, 7:50PM. We and the kids join about 50 neighborhood friends from Madeleine's football group to watch the women's UEFA Cup Championship between Potsdam, GD, and Lyonnais, FR. Craven Cottage, which holds 26,000 maximum, is maybe 2/3's full. Comp this to Saturday's men's final at Wembley Stadium which seats 80,000 : tickets on the open-market no less than £5 grand. Though under appreciated, it is an exciting match that the French win 2-nil. It is worth noting that, despite equally physical play, there is no winging, whining or diving which is prevalent in the men's game (and why most Americans think soccer players wimps); these chicas get on with business. Madeleine and Eitan happy to be with their friends eating (totally gross) burgers and (inedible) hot dogs. Me, I am glad to be sitting next to Sonnet and no rain. One hour ago - hail.

Only In London

Update : My beautiful tomato stalks -->

I meet with a Russian hedge-fund manager (age: 28) connected to a number of the Oligarchs, and his business partner from Dubai, who aim to provide an alternative to Russia's degrading electricy network, which (I learn) over 80% depreciated. From there it's lobster sandwiches at Sotheby's with Jan, my Dutch pal, who is responsible for one of Europe's largest family office investment programs. Then to James who is moving Conde Nast's 118 publications into the digital era (he being C N's youngest Board Member). We discuss how, so. Najib sends me a proposal on a consumer finance play (Najib formerly CEO of GE Credit).

Eitan sits next to me working the Apple. I have resisted this moment for years - I figure the kids will spend their lives hunched over a screen - but now his interest there. And what sparks it? you may ask. Music. He wants it on his ipod.

Push

Madeleine finds use for a garden tool.

Me: "How was school?"

Madeleine: "I dunno."

Me: "Two words. Well done."

Eitan: "Actually it was four."

Madeleine: "I know, I will use 13 words to describe school today and Eitan will use 15. "

Me: "Don't hurt yourself."

Madeleine: "School was very very very very very very very very very very boring."

Me:

Madeleine: "Eitan's turn."

Eitan: "Today I went to school. At school I sat at my desk. At my desk I read a book."

Me: "Boy I feel like I was right there with you."

Eitan: "Did you count how many words I used?"

Me: "Hmm can you count the words in 'no dessert'? I count two."

Madeleine: "You are so mean. That is four. I win again."

Me:

Got Kids ?

Think $14.3 T bad? Here is something to consider:

Federal government spending has 2X'd since 2001 to levels unprecedented in the post-WW2 era. In fact, the Congressional Budget Office predicts that the official debt (excluding the unfunded liability of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid) will exceed 100% of GDP by 2025 and could exceed 180% of GDP by 2035.

Further : the vast majority of future debt driven neither by defense nor discretionary but rather entitlement programs - SS, Medicare and Medicaid - will, by 2050, consume every penny that Uncle Sam raises in taxes. This means, Dear Reader, that everything else the government does, from domestic programs to national defense, including paying interest on the Fed debt, will have to be paid through .. more debt. Raising taxes ain't enough - we could confiscate 100% of the assets of Americans earning $1 M or more (the top 1% btw account for over 95% of tax-dollars) and this covers maybe 1/9 of CBO forecasted 2050 obligations (source : Michael Tanner, Cato Institute) . Barely a dent. As the full burden of entitlements kick in, the US govt will consume over 40% of GDP by the middle of the century.

Now entitlements, unlike the publicly held debt or inter-government transfers, are implicit obligations and not legally binding contracts so, in theory, we can change them .. like moving the retirement age to 69 over 75 years. Oops, tried that. Or index benies to price inflation instead of national wage growth. Doh. Or how about private SS accounts? Drat! shot down by the Democrats.

I have every faith in America to side step calamity but I have less faith in our politicians to do so.

Trapped

In my skin. Sometimes it feels this way.

So despite the gloom and doom and blah blah, private equity has cashed in a record amount of dough : the value of companies sold by pe firms worldwide reached $85 B since April (data from Preqin) - this exceeds the record deal volume of Q4 2010 when the industry sold out of 325 companies worth $81.3 B. Give or take. The exits driven by European deals, mostly, and the re-emergence of strategic buyouts which bought most of the bigger assets that were up for sale. Exhibit 1. Takeda Phama of Japan buys Nycomed from Noric Capital for $14 B. Exhibit 2. Microsoft buys Skype from Silver Lake for $8.5 B. So what gives ?

Well, firstly, a combo of factors like a greater availability of debt financing and cash-rich strategic buyers. But consider this : most private equity firms avoided fundraising after the collapse of Lehman Bros in '08 since few traditional fund owners had appetite or cash for new commitments. Now managers see their mgmt fees decline after the typical 5-year investment period when they are paid full freight. These guys need to show investors that they can make money if they wish a shot at another partnership. + more fees. And so the exits.

The next five years will see a clearing out of middling managers unable to raise more money. There is already an industry overhang of $500 B of capital ion Europe alone which of course hurts returns. Only the strongest franchises and freaks will survive.

Brother's In The House

President Obama arrives in London from Dublin, 12 hours ahead of schedule, as the skies cover with volcanic ash. Same as it ever was. Here Obama reacts to Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny's gift of a "Hurley stick" . Obama tells Kenny that the U.S. and Ireland share a "blood link" that extends beyond strategic interests or foreign policy into the hearts of the millions of Irish Americans who still see a homeland here. 40 million in the US call themselves "Irish American" which is interesting as Ireland's population less than 6 million.. and shrinking given Ireland wrecked its economy requiring a bailout by the Germans and yours, truly, a British tax-payer. But let us not dwell on that. Today it is about the Dutch and Dutches of Cambridge then the Queen. Photo from AP.

"A hurley (or camán) is a wooden stick used to hit a sliotar (leather ball) in the Irish sport of hurling. It measures between 70 and 100 cm (28 to 40 inches) long with a flattened, curved end (called the bas) which provides the striking surface. It is also used in camogie, the female equivalent sport."

--Wikipedia

Any Night Out

Me: "So what do young people wear to the bars these days?"

Aneta: "Young people?"

Me: "Yeah, like the boys. What do they wear?"

Aneta: "There are men. And there are boys. The men wear suits."

Me: "What do the boys wear?"

Aneta: "I don't know. Maybe jeans I think."

Me: "And what do the girls wear? Dresses?"

Eitan, backseat: "Dad!"

Aneta: "They no wear dresses. It more like shirt. Over bottom."

Eitan: "A mini skirt!"

Aneta: "I see no skirt. And high heals - they walk not so well. And lots of make up."

Me: "And how about drinking? Do they drink too much?"

Aneta: "Oh, yes, it horrible. They lie in the street."

Me: "They do?"

Aneta: "Yes, the girls lie in the street. Sometimes boys too. It horrible"

Me: