Runaway Train

I check out this cool dude at Rotterdam Central on my way to Amsterdam. Above all, I love the trainers.

So .. Greece is do or die today as government confirms further austerity measures in return for more .. debt. That they will never repay. The Greeks, who are a joke, riot but the alternatives unimaginable : cessation of public services, the end of their country. It would likely trigger the end of the euro and maybe the eurozone. Here is how we got here (compiled by wiki) :

The Greek economy was one of the fastest growing in the eurozone during the 2000s; from 2000 to 2007 it grew at an annual rate of 4.2% as foreign capital flooded the country. A strong economy and falling bond yields allowed the government of Greece to run large structural deficits. Large public deficits are one of the features that have marked the Greek social model since the restoration of democracy in 1974. After the removal of the right leaning military junta, the government wanted to bring disenfranchised left leaning portions of the population into the economic mainstream. In order to do so, successive Greek governments have, among other things, run large deficits to finance public sector jobs, pensions, and other social benefits. Since 1993 debt to GDP has remained above 100%.

Initially currency devaluation helped finance the borrowing. After the introduction of the euro in Jan 2001, Greece was, at first, able to borrow due to the lower interest rates government bonds could command. The 2007-08 financial crisis had a particularly large effect on Greece. Two of the country's largest industries are tourism and shipping, and both badly affected by the downturn with revenues falling 15% in 2009.

In 2009, the government revised its deficit from an estimated 6% to 12.7%. In May 2010, the Greek government deficit estimated to be 13.6%, one of the highest in the world relative to GDP. Greek government debt estimated at €216 billion in January 2010. This, mind you, a country of 11 M. Accumulated government debt was forecast to hit 120% of GDP in 2010. The Greek government bond market is reliant on foreign investors, with some estimates suggesting that up to 70% of Greek government bonds are held externally. They're done. Game over.

Estimated tax evasion costs the Greek government over $20 B per year.

So here we are.

Think Bigger, Dude

BT call center.

British Telecom's newest add cajoles us : "Bigger Thinking." (British Telecom = BT = Bigger Thinking. Get it ?) I consider this as I walk through Heathrow - I mean, WTF ? Are any of these slobs flying commericial capable of . . bigger thinking? Most of us getting through the day or, at least, to our terminal. BT informs me usefully: "Beyond the hype. You don't need hype. You need reality." As if.

Meanwhile, I recall financing the Europe's first video-on-demand service in '97 - VideoNetworks - dependent on BT's telecom platform to deliver to households movies, football, porno and whatever. BT did bugger-all to make their network rates viable despite VN increasing traffic, and income, to British Telecom (VideoNetworks went bust). So, today, BT tells me and others : "Beyond efficiency. Beyond Productivity. Beyond customer service." All these things beyond BT for sure.

In Rotterdam for dinner at Amarone, a Michelin star.

Aphrodite

Ticket Bagel

Madeleine at the national Olympics swimming facility in Bath, June 2005.

I finally learn our 2012 Olympic tickets allocation : Men's and women's final football; a football qualifying round and one morning session for swimming. No athletics nor Bolt 100 meters WR. No Phelps vs. Thorp 200-meter freestyle final. Ditto gymnastics and women's volley ball. Still, we are happy given that two-thirds of ticket bidders got a bagel including London Mayor Boris Johnson.

London learned from Athens when many events failed to sell-out embarrassing the host country before a global audience. So... the organisers harnessed the hype by forcing an application period while withholding tickets for later rounds or insiders. In short : over-bidding, frustration and even anger but .. the venues sell out. More galling to us citizens paying for the games : better odds to get tx outside of Britain via resellers. Oh well.

Eitan, doing homework: "Would you say the moon is about the size of Africa?"

Me:

Eitan: "How long do you think it would take me to run around the moon?"

Me: "You mean hypothetically?"

Eitan: "Yeah, whatever, just how long would it take?"

Me: "Well, it depends on the variables."

Eitan:

Me: "Like, how big is the moon? How fast can you run?"

Eitan: "Just guess."

Me: "Not scientific, dude.

Eitan: "It would take a week."

Me: "How did you get to there?"

Eitan: "I estimate that the moon is one-tenth the size of earth. And I can run 6 minute miles."

Me: "No way."

Eitan: "Yes, way. I did that 5-mile race in 38 minutes and there were hills and stuff. I could have easily done 6 minute miles."

Me: "For seven days straight?"

Eitan: "Yeah, but I'm just saying if I ran it at the same pace."

Me: "I can live with that."

White Carpet

Sonnet on the French Riviera.

Madeleine has her sites on a lizard and we discuss the various breeds : chameleons, dragon lizards, geckos . . .. As with all things pets, she usually gets her way BUT before she wins me over I tell her : research. Our dear single-finger types away on the macbook, asking the occasional question ("do you like meal worms or crickets more, Dad?") or stating some fact ("Gecko's live twenty years! We'll be having that for a long time"). Another positive : Madeleine motivated to work the computer; Eitan way ahead on this one.

We attend Sophie's bat mitzvah celebration at the Chiswick yacht club overlooking a full river on a beautiful London evening.

Choices, So Many

Me: "Do you worry about anything?"

Madeleine: "Yeah, sometimes."

Me: "Like what?"

Madeleine: "Like war."

Me: "Really?"

Madeleine: "I worry that England will be at war with some one."

Me: "Let's hope not."

Madeleine: "I worry that a bomb will drop on us every month, every week, every day, every hour, every minute, every second."

Me: "That's a terrible thing for a kid to have to worry about."

Madeleine: "I also worry about secondary school."

Sunday Walk

Sonnet takes Eitan to a swimming gala and Madeleine and I head for Richmond Park.

Me: "What do you think that fence is for?"

Madeleine: "I don't know."

Me: "Probably to keep out the dinosaurs."

Madeleine: "There are no such thing as dinosaurs, Dad. They died a long time ago. Accept for eagles. Eagles are dinosaurs."

Me: "Yeah?"

Madeleine: "Once I saw an eagle on some one's arm and the eagle ripped his arm off."

Me:

Madeleine: "Blood and guts and veins."

Me:

Madeleine: "We've walked four-point-five miles."

Me: "What does the point-five mean?"

Madeleine: "Mean?"

Me: "Like what distance?"

Madeleine: "How should I know?"

Me: "Well, does the point-five equal a fraction?"

Madeleine:

Me: "like one over two, for instance?"

Madeleine: "Or 25 over ten?"

Me: "Okay. So what does one-over-two equal?"

Madeleine: "A quarter? Three fourths ?"

Me: "How about one-half?"

Madeleine: "Sounds good, Dad."

Me: "So how far have we walked if we have walked four-point-five miles?"

Madeleine: "Can we talk about lizards or something?"

Red Tape

Eitan's school has their annual sports-day and the boy runs the long-distance or six times around the green. He wins handily. His team, The Reds, don't fair as well : last place.

Court 1

Sonnet and I watch Sharapova defeat fellow (?) Brit Lisa Robson who enjoys the crowds heart but bows out in two sets. Pictured. Venus Williams dispatches Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez losing two points and Nadal battles Gilles Muller before the rain shuts us down. No complaints though - we see three of the world's best tennis players and perhaps two of all time. Andy Murray on Center Court and the country holds its breath - Fred Perry the last British winner and that was '36.

Art

Madeleine's creation : "It is an ice cream cone. With hair."

Our dear is a creative and her imagination spread across her bedroom - post-card collection, legos in various constructions, a loom (maybe one day I will get my scarf), trumpet . . . bugs (in jar), microscope, dinosaurs, a fish (named "Stig"), Harry Potters, mound of stuffed animals, a few marbles and the hamster. Sonnet grinds. Once a month or so, Sonnet clandestinely fills a large black garbage bag to its top and sneaks away to the dump. It is not fair, no doubt, but usually the crapola not missed. And we can open the door to her room.

A Shot Of A Shot

Another action shot from Eric and Simona's wedding, this time by the official photographer. Notable #1: Eric remarkably calm given ceremony inside an hour. Notable #2: I am going bald. No denying my mother's father's hairline.

Antiquities

This Greek eroticism from about 400 BC : a nympth pulls her charge inward; he resists and so a roll-reversal : usually (always?) the male the agressor. But a closer look finds the temptress has a .. penis. A hermaphrodite. The sculpture believed risquee and mothballed for >100 years until '09 - it is one of my favorites.

So Greece wins consent from international lenders and the bail out is "on." Not surprisingly, since the country has little chance of avoiding default, German bonds slump. This one not going away dude but, at least, the bankers have a year or so to figure out the mess.

Alte Nationalgalerie

I visit the Old National Gallery on Berlin's "Museum Island" and see this beautiful fresco.

I am in the German capital for an investor AGM including a boat ride up the river Spree to the Federal Chancellery where I meet the Minister of State, Eckart von Klaeden. Interesting moment, to, given Greece - fair to say the Germans think the Greeks a bunch of lazy welfare whores. And so they are but then again : GD benefits hugely from the Eurozone and its low interest rates+stable currency as the world's 2nd largest exporter after China and before the US of A. One guy tells Eckert : "they don't deserve our money." Dude doesn't realise this not the issue.

If we fail the Greeks , Europe risks a run on Spain, Italy and Ireland so the collapse of the Euro and disintegration of the union followed by a global recession. And the US? Like AIG, US banks own credit-default swaps, or insurance to owners of Greek sovereign debt, which could create trillions of immediate liabilities. The Greeks will never repay their obligations BTW so the proposed €110 B loan package a stall so the bankers can get their house of cards in order. Greece, which is less than 2% of the European economy, has strong negotiating poker hand.

Madeleine: "What would you prefer? That I have a lizard or a bunny?"

Me: "We are not getting a lizard."

Trio

My wise friend Xavier notes the importance of a "strong woman" in a partnership. I am blessed , having married one, and surrounded by others, like Ada and Mary - pictured. Ada Israeli (married to Shai) and her PhD on playwright Henrik Ibsen. Mary a Director at Thompson Reuters, one of the world's largest media and information companies.

In my industry, private equity, I would guess that <20% Senior Officers or partners female which, as Katie says, "excludes half the smartest minds." When I began my career at First Boston half the Analysts women while I could count on two hands the number of female Managing Directors (fewer black). Pyramid not working, dude. Mary tells me that Boston Consulting, the top strategic consulting firm, has 600 partners of which 25 women; some web research show 33% of the 4,300 consultants female. Columbia Business School's student body aprox. 30% women which is one of the highest ratios for an elite business school.

Hope changed when Madeleine hits the work force.

@ 44

If 44 not middle-age, I don't know what is. I am probably a few years beyond the center point but why be exact? And any ways : life repeats itself, you just don't know it until you reach 40. So, feeling a bit blue about it all as I usually do on my birthday, I come home to find Sonnet making dinner and Madeleine a birthday cake, which she hides in the refrigerator (she: "whatever you do, Dad, do not open the 'fridge.") She also gift-wraps (w/ an A4 sheet) a chocolate bar and a pair of Daffy Duck socks (today: "What socks are you wearing?") . Eitan gives me a birthday hug and Rusty jumps all over me. Industry Ventures receives its final commitment on Fund VI, which happens to be one of my guys, and the partnership closes. We watch Wimbledon (Murray wins!) then The Wire and to bed. In all, a nice day.

Thank you, everybody, for your emails, cards and etc's!

Me: "How old am I."

Madeleine: "44."

Me: "How old do I look?"

Madeleine: "How should I know? You're an adult."

Miss US of A, Y'All!

Finally! Some good news from California! Our very own 21-year-old auburn-haired gal wins the Miss USA crown on Sunday night and will represent The Nation in the Miss Universe pageant later this year in Brazil! Our darling from El Lay topped a field of 51 beauties to take the TITLE at the Planet Hollywood Resort & Casino on the Las Vegas Strip! She strutted across the stage in a blue bikini with white polka dots and a dark turquoise evening gown with beading on its top! Her interests are history and the British monarchy! California is back, y'all!

Happy Faces

Julia And Arnaud

Arnaud and Julia's wedding at Château de la Napoule, an historical landmark whose gardens listed by the French Ministry of Culture as "among the Notable gardens of France." I do not doubt it. A warm sun sets over the lingering blue sky as vows exchanged (NB: the fellow above not Arnaud).

Arnaud and I have known each other five years meeting through work and seeing each other in France (Arnaud a vrai Parissiane) or London socially - once, famously, consuming four martinis each at the Lanesborough - but this for another story. Arnaud at Adams Street, one of the most successful private equity fund investors in the world; he became their youngest partner when promoted at 33.

This is Arnaud - in dark suit w/ jacket -->

S. France

Sonnet dries her nails in Cannes.

We are to Arnaud and Julia's wedding which is on the Côte d'Azur, the French Riviera, covering 560 miles of coastline and one of the first modern resort areas in ze world. It began in the 18th-century as a winter health resort for the British upper classes daring beyond Bath; with the railway came the British, Russian, and other playboys and aristocrats like Queen Victoria and King Edward VII; in summer, the Rothschilds took over the place then came the artists: Picasso, Matisse, Edith Wharton, Somerset Maugham and Aldous Huxley who came to tan themselves. In '46, the film festival and '57 - Bond.

Cannes, where we stay, is a crowded busy spot with low brow next to high-end : on seemingly back-end streets there is a .. Gucci store next to .. Dolce & Gabbana. Fat dudes stroll the promenade, sans shirt, smoking cigars. Red Ferraris everywhere, bunched before the Grand Hotel so famous in the post cards. But it is the yachts, Dear Reader, that catch thine' eye : enormous, ostentatious, idle - birthed at sea for everyone and me to oggle : so big the smaller yachts must service them. At night their parties and disco dancing cast a halo along the flat water, otherwise still, surrounded by the glorious hillsides.

KGB

I have lunch at Terminus, outside the train station, and snap this guy who I am pretty sure is a spy. I am here for meetings then back to London on the evening train.

Eitan returns from the Isle of White and Sonnet and I will miss him until Sunday as we are off to the South of France for our 58th wedding.