More Debt

No. 31

According to a recent report from the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), the ratio of global debt, excluding financial institutions, now stands about 210% of global GDP, up from 175% on the eve of the financial crisis. The CEPR report's title, "Deleveraging? What Deleveraging?" captures its key finding. It could have also been, "What, me worry?"  How daja vu.

Here is what President Hoover's Treasury Secretary, Andrew Mellon, advocated: 

"Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate... it will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people."

Party Talk

Auntie Katie's Xmas Slippers 

Sonnet and I pick up Madeleine from a Saturday night party. 

Me: "What did you guys talk about?"
Madeleine: "Nothing."
Me: "Nothing? So what did you do all night ?"
Madeleine: "I don't know. Stood around and pretended we knew each other."
Sonnet: "You must have talked about something."
Me: "Seriously. How about school? Or the weather?"
Madeleine: "Kids don't do small talk, Dad."

Math Is Fun!

Fibonacci is everywhere

Prof Golé warms up the Smith crowd with an overview of phyllotaxis which is the arrangement of leaves on a plant stem - Phyllotactic spirals form a distinctive class of patterns in nature. We are enthused. From there we hit the Fibonacci numbers (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, ... add the last two to get the next, just make sure you start at 0) and the Golden Rule (Divide two lines where the longer part divided by the smaller part is also equal to the whole length divided by the longer part). Then we nail patterns from accretion. The crowd goes wild ! We are on our feet pumping fists like it's the Super Bowl !!

An interesting observation, being in an audience of mainly women, is how supportive the sisterhood is of each other. Speaker makes bad joke, everyone laughs.

Smith Annual Dinner

Sonnet at Paradise Pond, Smith College, 2013

Sonnet and I join Nita and Alain for the Smith College annual dinner at the Sloane Club. The guest speaker, Christophe Golé, a French mathematician and professor at Smith, whose interests are in the theory of dynamical systems as it applies to Hamiltonian systems and Mathematical Biology. (Dynamical systems, dear reader, is the mathematical theory that studies time evolution of systems. They have been used to model many systems from physics, economics, biology etc. The theory's claim to fame is to be the proper setting to the mathematical notion of chaos). I already look forward to Eric's commentary. 

Prior to dinner I chat with a tall blonde, Smith class of '11, with an alluring smile and brimming with confidence. 23 years old. I start to get some swagger until she informs me she "does" algorithms for Google. Hmmm, good to know I now have nothing to say to young people. Sonnet chides me anyway: "you needn't have to do that anymore." Am I relieved by this?

Eitan: "What band is this?"

Me: " 'War On Drugs'. You're mom and I are going to their concert in March. Want to join us?"

Eitan: "I'm OK."

Dramz

Eitan is Caesar

Eitan enjoys school drama and may sit the drama exam for GCSEs next year. Sonnet and I think he would enjoy it but for now his third elective is French. He has stage presence.

I return to London on the over-nighter saying good-bye to Thierry who is on his way to Paris then Milan for the weekend. We cover a lot of ground, he and I. My flight a short five hours putting me into T5 Friday morning 4:50AM and dark, dark, dark. I arrive home to a few groggy hugs and Sonnet in action: she keeps a sharp schedule. Soon it is just me and the dog so I head for work.

Madeleine (6:25AM): "Dad, it's you."

Mobius Strip

Eric gleefully describes his scarf which is also a mobius strip which has a mathematical property of having a non-orientable surface: "You can splice two together and get a klein bottle" he points out. (A klein bottle, dear reader, is a two-dimensional manifold against which a system for determining a normal vector cannot be consistently defined). Like father, like son.

Eric and I have breakfast and catch each other up on various activities: Ben is somehow a Jr in college and contemplating an engineering PhD; Jonah is committed to drama and Isabel is evolving. It's about growing up.

Cricket Rocketeers

Here is another classic from Todd - us launching "The Payloader" which had a clear compartment where Todd and I stuffed bugs and other things. It's the same rocket I recently fired with Johnny.  Note the hand crafted launch pad. The photo taken in 1978 in the parking lot of Golden Gate Fields race track. It was a family affair - Katie and Leslie cower behind the Dodge Swinger.

Power Tower

Central Park

The Solow Building at 9 West 57 Street is buyout central with Apollo, Silver Lake and Highland Capital located here. On the 42nd top floor, where my meeting takes place, is the grand daddy of them all: Kohlberg Kravis & Roberts Co which has completed $400 billion of deal making since the 70s. This is the view when you're king of the hill.

Today marks the 35th anniversary of the London Marathon, a distance I never conquered nor will ever run again. In 1998, at my running prime, I finished London in 3:11 yet had to walk the last two miles. Paula Radcliffe, who I have followed since 1997 when I saw her win a winter road-race bobbing her head all the way, will make the London Marathon her last competitive race come April.

New York Shuts Down

Penn Station

"The Storm Of The Century" arrives on the Eastern Seaboard just in time to cancel a bunch of meetings that have taken several months to set up. Oh well, snow day ! Mayor de Blasio tells us to stay inside, orders all cars off the street from 11PM (that's never happened before) and closes the subway for only the 3rd time in the city's history (interestingly Sonnet and I in Manhattan the first time January 8, 1996). Schools shut and flights cancelled. New York settles in for a good old time.

During the Blizzard of 1996, Sonnet and I walked from our Riverside Drive apartment to the newly opened gourmet Fairway grocery store beneath the Riverside Drive overpass. Not a soul to be seen. We bought a bunch of live lobsters and white wine and walked home through two feet of snow for a saintly evening.

One ton of street salt is $58, up 30% from last year.

Uptown

Harlem Ride

Katie and I head to Harlem for brunch at celeb chef Marcus Samuelsson's comfort food joint "The Red Rooster" (we have Caribbean bacon, stewed beans, haitian piklitz and egg. Plus collard greens and grits, of course) followed by a walk along Lenox Avenue to Central Park. A large group of cyclists catch our attention - a memorial, we are told.

Katie takes a photo of a women's clothing shop which advertises "real clothes for real sizes" only to be accosted by the owner who asks Katie to erase the image. I think uh-oh but instead Katie has a long talk with Sister Sylvia who is angered by out-of-towners snapping photos and exploiting Harlem. She notes a recent documentary shot in her neighbourhood and showing in Paris without the permission of those filmed. She and Katie bond and I am very impressed as my instinct would have been just about the opposite to Katie's.

Guggenheim

I wake up early Sunday in Manhattan and, feeling disoriented from jet lag and lack of sleep, do what I always do in these circumstances: put on my running shoes and hit the road. In this case, it is a short hop from the Four Seasons to Central Park where I am greeted by 1000s of runners completing a half-marathon. I love the company which inspires me to go for a full loop, which passes in a New York minute. This is my second favourites place to run after Tilden Park.

From the Guggenheim website (abbreviated):
In June 1943, Frank Lloyd Wright received a letter from Hilla Rebay, the art advisor to Solomon R. Guggenheim, asking the architect to design a new building to house Guggenheim's four-year-old Museum of Non-Objective Painting. The project evolved into a complex struggle pitting the architect against his clients, city officials, the art world, and public opinion. Both Guggenheim and Wright would die before the building's 1959 completion.

Wright made no secret of his disenchantment with Guggenheim's choice of New York for his museum: "I can think of several more desirable places in the world to build his great museum," Wright wrote in 1949 to Arthur Holden, "but we will have to try New York." To Wright, the city was overbuilt, overpopulated, and lacked architectural merit.

Still, he proceeded with his client's wishes, considering locations on 36th Street, 54th Street, and Park Avenue (all in Manhattan), as well as in the Riverdale section of the Bronx, before settling on the present site on Fifth Avenue between 88th and 89th Streets. Its proximity to Central Park was key: the museum is an embodiment of Wright's attempts to render the inherent plasticity of organic forms in architecture.

KKH Re Union

Jackie, Ray and Katie

The KKH reunions at Ray's house in Brooklyn and we are greeted by Ray in his salwar kameez and Afghani hats, which he hands out to the men. This is only the second time we have been together as a group since August 1997. All are assembled, missing only Sonnet, and include Ray, Tom, Sharon, Joanna, Katie, me and - of course - Munir.

The route, on the Pakistani side, commenced at Taxila City (40km from Islamabad and Rawalpindi) to Abbottabad, where Bin Laden killed. I had forgotten that we lunched not far from his mansion, which was located on the KKH at the intersection of the road leading to the military academy. From there is was Chatter Plain near Basham (famous for its gun trade) then Kohistan, "the mountain district."

Munir tells the story of Yakub Shaw and the Punjabi wrestler.

One night, in Kashgar, Yakub was at a restaurant with the famous Punjabi wrestler who was with his entourage of ten men. After a loud evening, the Punjabi wrestler departed without paying his our his entourage's bill. Yakub overheard the proprietor complaining about the Pakastanis and the trouble they caused. He said, "No. Do not complain about the Pakistanis.  I am Pakistani." Then he paid their bill and then went immediately to the hotel room of the Punjabi wrestler. He entered the room with force and locked the door behind him from the inside.  From outside, people heard a terrible noise and banging. After 30 minutes, Yaqub opened the door. The Punjabi wrestler was on the floor where he had received a terrible beating [Munir indicates Yaqub washing his hands of the whole affair as he walks by the entourage].

Meanwhile

Madeleine and her pals

The last couple weeks have zipped by including the Noel Xmas party for Astorg at a..  . haunted house in Paris (Sonnet: "That was unexpected."); Noa's Bat Mitvah, Hampton School's "A" squad advance to the final eight of the English Schools FA Cup, or ESFA, out of 610 squads.  Sonnet prepares for the opening of Italian Fashion in Portland, Oregon (she will take Madeleine) and I soon depart for a week on the East Coast including seeing Katie in NYC and a reunion of the Silk Road at the professor's home in Brooklyn.

Eitan stands before the refrigerator. Sonnet: "What are you looking for?"

Eitan: "Food."

Roger Goes Public

A typical Box employee

Roger's company Box floats (the stock price is up!) on the New York Stock Exchange raising $175m, underwritten by several investment banks including Morgan Stanley where, Roger reminds us, he began his career shortly after Brown. Now who is holding the bag? 

Roger's decision to leave the security of Microsoft a courageous one, requiring a relocation from Seattle to Silicon Valley. While the transition disruptive, his family has thrived and matured and it has been a joy, though not always, to be a part of it. You've come a long way, baby.

The Long Road

Lest we forget how far these kids have come.

Eitan considers his mock GCSEs, exams he will take in 18 months. He will sit 12 subjects and must today choose three electives. No easy task, deciding one's future. You will be hearing a lot about the GCSEs, dear reader. Stay tuned.

Eitan: "Didn't somebody once ask you in an interview what vegetable you would want to be?"
Me: "Brussel sprouts. Nobody would eat me."
Madeleine: "I would want a vegetable that gets respect. Like broccoli."
Me: "Broccoli?"
Madeleine: "Beetroot doesn't get any respect."
Klara: "What about a tomato?"
Eitan: "Good one only it's a fruit."
Madeleine: "If I was a fruit I would want to be a passion fruit. No, wait, a guava."
Me:
Madeleine: "So I would be living in the tropics."
Me: "I'm glad we've got the fruit and veg covered."

Race Day Collage

Wimbledon Common 

Madeleine runs a x-country race on Wimbledon Common competing against 100 girls or so.  The 3K race starts on a flat green "but then winds its way through a horrible muddy terrain" (says Madeleine). She now tells me that her strategy was to "charge through the puddles and mud swamps while the other runners went around them."

I watch the final push - go Madeleine! - and she finds an extra gear to pass 4 girls (pictured) to finish an unofficial 13th (first for her new club Hercules Wimbledon).

Madeleine: "It felt like there was a knife in my shoulder and my asthma was super-bad." (Dad's note, Madeleine races with an inhaler which she uses during and after running and any exertion)

Goal Posts

The kids cooperate on Gracie's holiday present

From one muddy pitch to the next, Eitan plays center mid field against Worster Park on a cold, wet and dark day in a concrete town on the outskirts of London. The morning made worse by the outcome: 4-2 them (Eitan scores one, misses another). It should have been a draw but those are the breaks. Madeleine wisely stays in bed.

Now I am in Paris and despite the date it still feels like Christmas. The lights and ornaments remain along Faubourg St Honoree and carols fill the hotel. Are the retailers trying to eek out a few more holiday sales or the French unwilling to let go? (Sonnet took everything down December 31).

Madeleine, doodling: "It's an animal. And a pineapple."
Me: "Oh?"
Madeleine: "Its a pinanimal."
Me:
Madeline: "This one is a Frankenstein dog. A Frankendog."
Me: "Cool."

Surrey Cross Country Championships

Teamwork

 We sit around the kitchen listening to the rain on a dark Saturday morning. The kids running a cross country race. Even Rusty hesitates in these conditions. I have become that parent who talks about walking six miles in the snow to get to school. Well .. my and Katie's swimming galas went from the crack of dawn to late evening or night. Madeleine rolls her eyes.

We arrive at Lloyds Park in the Borough of Croydon (awful, Kate Moss is from here) to find the various clubs doing their pre race preparations and I think: Military. I take the dog for a tour of the course and it is unrunnable in the mud without spikes.

Madeleine's race, 3K, off first - bang! - and the many legged beast heads for the first turn, lost from site over the hill and into the common.  There is a strange loll while the spectators seek a new vantage point (I head towards the finish line) then there they are - at least the front runner, covered in mud grimacing, in effort - racing down the final incline towards the finishing shoot. Madeleine is in hot pursuit, maybe 30 yards outside. She finishes, clutching her inhaler, in 12:25, good enough for a top place.

Final leg

Eitan sits around for 1.5 hours before his starting gun. He competes with the U15s which get an extra kilometre for the 4k race. Cross country new to both kids and Eitan surveys the course beforehand.

Eitan off like a rocket, settles in and finishes in the middle of the pack.

Both kids satisfied/ relieved when it is over. In the car Madeleine devours a 'bacon buddy' and Eitan a muffin and bag of crisps. Bravo.

Me (kids dive into pizza): "Say something about the race."
Sonnet: "Everybody has to have a piece of broccoli!"
Madeleine: "It was very tough."
Eitan: "The puddles made it fun."

Napoleon In The House

Napoleon's Coronation, which we saw last month at the Louvre

Sonnet and I begin the New Year with War And Peace, ten hours of it, broadcast on Radio 4 all day, New Year's day. It is a wonderful production, abridged of course, and brings alive the book I read several years ago.

W&P, Vanity Fair and Les Miserables (which I read following our visit to the Paris sewers) each cover the same period of history focusing on Napoleon's failure in Moscow or Waterloo. Tolstoy, Thackery and Hugo create epicness by making the wars a major character in their tails while writing their stories 50 or 60 years after the demise of the French army.  It is a window into a different era that changed the future of Europe.

And Napoleon, for his part, rose from the French Revolution of 1789. He dominated European affairs for two decades, leading France in the  Napoleonic Wars and seizing control of most of continental Europe before Waterloo 1815. One of the greatest commanders in history, his campaigns are studied at military schools worldwide and he remains simultaneously one of the most celebrated and controversial political figures in European history.

In civil affairs Napoloeon put in place many liberal reforms across Europe summarized by British historian Andrew Roberts:

"The ideas that underpin our modern world—meritocracy, equality before the law, property rights, religious toleration, modern secular education, sound finances, and so on—were championed, consolidated, codified and geographically extended by Napoleon. To them he added a rational and efficient local administration, an end to rural banditry, the encouragement of science and the arts, the abolition of feudalism and the greatest codification of laws since the fall of the Roman Empire."

"Imagination rules the world."-Napoleon Bonaparte

A Lull In The Action

Family Portrait

We enjoy the lull of the holidays, sleeping in, going to yoga and eating cheese and chocolate. Drinking red wine. Reading. But all good things must come to an end and we drop Auntie Katie off at T2. With a hug and a smile she returns to Manhattan.

An add for "Alpecin Caffeine Shampoo" tells us that 2 million bottles sold in Germany last year which makes me wonder: is there a faster way than coffee?

Eitan sells the six antique chairs sitting in the garage on eBay (they were otherwise to the dump). He discovers a new business model and now selling one of my shirts.

Me: "Are you shaving your legs?"
Madeleine: "OMG."

Sonnet: "So what kinds of snacks should I be getting you?"
Eitan: "Cereal."
Sonnet: "Oh? What kind?"
Eitan: "Crave."
Madeleine: "Cheerios."
Sonnet: "Now we're talking."
Eitan: "Wheat-a-bix."
Me, Madeleine:
Sonnet: "He is British."
Me: "Frosted Flakes."
Madeleine: "Lucky Charms. Oh, I love Lucky Charms."
Sonnet: "We are not getting Lucky Charms."
Me: "What's Crave, anyway?"
Eitan: "It's, like, cereal cubes with creamy chocolate inside."
Me: "That's basically candy."
Eitan: "Yes but you can have it for breakfast."

Camden

Camden Market

At Madeleine's request, we spend the day in Camden Town to visit the market, which has been going since 1974 when a small weekly crafts market operated every Sunday near Camden Lock. It eventually developed into a large complex of temporary stalls.  Now it is London's fourth-most popular visitor attraction drawing 100,000 people on the weekend.

Madeleine and Eitan head for the clothing stalls and shoe stores: they each buy a "Vans" sweatshirt (arguing who saw it first) and Eitan gets some fresh Puma's.  They both have an eye for the thing.

Me, wearing a tight cotton turtle neck: "Can you see my nips?"
Madeleine: "Dad!"
Me: "I thought we could talk about anything."
Madeleine: "We can. Just not everything."
Me: "So nips are out. What else?"
Madeleine:
Me: "Guys. Can we talk about guys?"
Madeleine: "OMG. This is so embarrassing."
Me: "I'm just trying to understand the boundaries."

Holiday Spirit

Train to Camden

Boxing Day comes and goes. We host a small party for our local friends then wrap up the afternoon in front of a couple of movies: Leon (for me) about an assassin who takes in a 12 year-old Natalie Portman which provides plenty of action and gore, just perfect for the holidays, followed by The Avengers for some more action, though this time mindless. Hollywood's focus on gay comic book heroes has become a bore.

I run the Parkrun 3 mile race in Richmond Park (every Saturday, 9AM) and complete the course in 20:56 or 27 out of 215 runners.  Eitan elects to sleep in, fair enough. The winning time is 17:31 or the difference between me, now, and twenty years.

Photo by Katie.

Cheer

New puppy slippers and a rooster hat from Auntie Katie.

Christmas Day starts surprisingly late around 10AM. Gone are the days when Eitan and Madeleine up at the crack of dawn pestering us downstairs! Downstairs! Downstairs! Eitan needs his sleep which even trumps presents.

We watch the movie Big which has the the kids' attention, especially the scene where Tom Hanks arrives at the office Christmas party in a white tuxedo then acts like a general weirdo. Eitan: "It's just like a kid acts at a party!"

Madeleine burns a napkin with a table cable, which gets a scolding from Sonnet. Madeleine: "Dad what would happen if I put my iPhone in the fire?"
Me: "You'd be without an iPhone?"
Madeleine: "Would it melt or something?"
Me: "Or it might explode."
Madeleine: "That's what I thought. Just wondering."

Katie: "There are a few things the Brits do better and some things the Americans do better."
Eitan: "I know."
Katie: "The Americans do better teeth. And better skin." 
Eitan:
Katie: "The Brits do better gardens, flowers and tea. And better accents. The Americans have better food."
Me: "I'm not so sure about that."
Katie: "Bangers and mash?"
Me: "I like the French. For food."
Eitan: "The Americans can't play football."
Katie: "We have more land! We have more land!"
Eitan: "You don't have to gloat."

Xmas Eve

Barnes track

We sneak into the Barnes field which used to be not sneaking but now there is a fence and gate which impedes our entry. It has become a Christmas Eve event.  Sonnet prepares gravlax and we have bagels for dinner, as is our custom.

Katie's Op-Ed Project is going great guns. In 2014, she and her colleagues visited seven countries and worked with over 25 universities. She says "Booyah!"

Des Egouts

Following our visit to the Musee Des Egouts De Paris, also known as the Paris sewer museum, I decide to read Victor Hugo's "Les Miserables."

Paris's first sewer system BTW was built in the 1200's: It consisted of open troughs that ran down the center of each cobblestone road. It was not esp effective and contributed to the spread of the Black Death.

The first underground sewer was built in 1370 beneath the Rue Montmartre, and drained into the Seine. The Sewers were expanded slowly during the next 400 years. However due to a lack of coverage beneath the city and widespread disrepair the sewers remained a problem. ..

Napoleon Bonaparte finally brought the sewers up to speed. In 1805, Bruneseau was commissioned to undertake the building of 182 new miles of sewer:

"The complete visitation of the subterranean sewer system of Paris occupied seven years, from 1805 to 1812. While yet he was performing it, Bruneseau laid out, directed and brought to an end some considerable works; in 1808 he lowered the floor of the Ponceau, and creating new lines everywhere, he extended the sewer... At the same time he disinfected and purified the whole network. (Les Miserables, Jean Valjean; Book II, Ch. 4)"

No other city has a sewer network that that of Paris whose tunnels stretch 2,100 kilometres. It houses, in addition to the drinking and non drinking water mains, telecommunication cables, pneumatic cables and traffic light management cables.  Every day, 1.2 million cubic metres of wastewater have to be collected. Every year, 15,000 cubic metres of solid waste are taken out and disposed of.

Me: "The first line of Les Mis .. ."
Kate: "Which is?"
Me: "In the year 1815 Monseigneur Charles-Francois-Bienvenu Myriel was Bishop of Digne."
Kate: "That's an auspicious start."

More On Hair

Vampire

Here’s an advertisement by Oxford BioLabs for hair loss:

“Hair loss can be a nightmare. It can make you look less attractive, and also lead to disadvantages within your career and limit you in your partner choice. It can lead to depression, loss of self-confidence and even identity change.”   

Who knew?

Fortunately my hair has got me to where I wish to be: married, a career of some sort, and male.

Eitan has nothing to worry about as his mother’s father had a full head of thick and heavy hair.  I remember Stan's slicked back pompadour from another era - it was very becoming, esp when perched on a bar stool with drink and fag, animated in some story. Indeed another time.

Paris Montage

 Eurostar

Madeleine finishes "To Kill A Mocking Bird" while Eitan re reads (perhaps my favorite) "Lonesome Dove." Sonnet attacks four back issues of the New Yorker. I work away on the train trying to finish up various emails and projects by the end of the year.

 Notre Dame

Eitan: "Is that Notre dame?"

Me: "You're killing me. That's like being in California and asking what ocean that is."

Eitan:

Me: "You know it's the Pacific, right?"

Eitan: "Is it a church ?"

Me: "Ug."

 The Marais

Madeleine: "How much would you give me if I jumped in the Seine right now?"

 The Pantheon, 5e

Auntie Katie Arrives

At the Natural History Museum in Paris. Madeleine: "Did they have to kill all these animals to get them here?"

Me:  "Yep. Unless they were road kill."

Madeleine: "This is why I have a problem with natural history museums. It's so unfair."

Me: "Not if you're a taxidermist."

M: "Huh ?"

Me: "Stuffing the animals. It's a pretty good living."

M: "Whatever, Dad."

Me: "It just depends on your perspective. As with most things in life."

 Eiffel Tower

Madeleine sees the Eiffel Tower: "Woa! I didn't realise it was right there."

A Normal Interaction

Last Sighting

That sucker is gone.

Blast Off

Johnny pushes the button

We launch the "The Payloader" 2,000 feet into the windy atmosphere never to be seen again. Well worth it.

Madeleine: "Are you going to Paris this week?"
Me: "Zurich tomorrow. But I'll be home for dinner."
Madeleine: "You're going for one day?"
Me: "Yep."
Madeleine: "What's the point of that?"

It's The Oil, Stupid

Williston Basin, North Dakota

A barrel of oil now goes for 57 bucks or a 40% decline since October. Go figure. A price cut of 25% (if maintained) means that global GDP will be roughly 0.5% higher than it would be otherwise. Some countries of course will gain a lot more than that average - In China, a $1 drop per barrel saves the country $2.1bn. So for instance, the world produces just over 90m b/d of oil. At $115 a barrel, that is worth roughly $3.8 trillion a year; at $85, just $2.8 trillion. Any country or group that consumes more than it produces gains from the $1 trillion transfer—importers, most of all.

For the US it will be a mixed bag because America is simultaneously the world’s largest consumer, importer and producer of oil. On balance cheaper oil will help the average Joe but not as much as it used to. Goldman Sachs reckons that cheaper oil and lower interest rates should add about 0.1 percentage points to growth in 2015. But that will be more than offset by a stronger dollar, slower global growth and weaker stockmarkets.

I started my career in First Boston's natural resources group (NRG) before switching to financial services. The former much more interesting.

DC

A Man In His Prime

We spend the weekend with David and Tabitha and their family.

David's consultancy, Macro Advisory Partners, going great guns with 20 clients including big brands, global companies and a few sovereigns. David does the macro and he is a genius: like no one I know he ties the pieces together: politics, risk, financial markets, currencies, geo political issues .. . money.

Holiday Season

Merry, merry

We get into the Xmas spirit with the countdown less than two weeks. Sonnet puts lights up in front of the house and we decorate the Christmas tree.

Dior uses Led Zeppelin's "Whole Lotta Love" to promote Dior Homme Fragrance starring Robert Pattison. Initially I was WTF but the uncensored version (youtube) is pretty fabulous. Shake for me baby, I want to be your backdoor man.

Bang Bang

And it is Friday. Again.

This week it's the Nordics and I find myself in Copenhagen, Oslo, Stockholm (Nobel prize being awarded) and Helsinki. It is cold and winter and the sun rises at 9AM and sets by 3PM. Strange life for those who live here yet it is also charming with Christmas lights and storefront candles. I force myself to run in the early darkness and watch the cyclers and commuters brace themselves against the weather. No wonder this part of the world drinks more coffee than anywhere else.

Madeleine: "I love The Kooks."
Me: "Yep."
Madeleine: "Have you heard of the song 'Slim Shady?"
Me: "Of course. That's ancient."
Madeleine: "I was so proud of you when I learned that you knew Eminem."
Me: "Have you heard of the song 'Bang Bang?"
Madeleine: "Of course, Dad."
Me: "What do you think she's singing about?"
Madeleine: "I don't know. Anyway I'm not saying."
Me: "So when she says, 'bang! bang! all over me' what does that mean?"
Madeleine:
Me: "Back in my day, we only listened to songs about bunny rabbits. And cats."
Madeleine (under her breath): "Yeah, right."
Me: "Bang bang! the cute little rabbit jumped over a tree."
Madeleine: "Can I be excused now?"

The Big Hole

Our triumph (1975)

Todd (the one on the right) and I neighbours and best of friends until we moved house in 1977 (eventually Todd's family headed for Healdsburg where we would visit - we hunted frogs on the dried out Russian River banks or shot arrows and BB guns).

In this particular photo we dug a hole in Todd's backyard. Who knows why? but it was deep, eventually deep enough to sink the two of us. Our summer days filled with the work. We found all sorts of bugs and critters with jaws that we put into jars or made fight.

When not digging we were building tree forts. Or making go carts. Constructing battleships from planks of wood. Or (my favourite) drawing posters of Star Trek episodes on paper dispatched from Todd's father's printer (the paper had removable ridges on the sides for the printer to "bite" the paper and move it through the gears). We built plastic models of the Starship Enterprise and the Klingon B'Moth or Amar and then melted them during epic laser and photon torpedo space battles. Good times for a kid.

Today Todd lives in Chico with his wife and two boys. He is a retired captain and firefighter.

Madeleine: "Can I ask Gracie and Moe to get me a BB gun for Christmas?"
Me: "Absolutely not."
Madeleine: "But why?"
Me: "Because it's a gun."
Madeleine: "But in 'To Kill A Mockingbird' Atticus bought Jim and Scout a riffle."
Me: "Nice reference but it's still no."
Madeleine: "So unfair."

Father Son Jog

Post Richmond Park 5 mile loop

Me: "You're just lying on the floor?" [Dad's note: Madeleine lies on her bedroom floor texting on her iPhone]
Madeleine: "Yep."
Me: "It's kind of unusual, for us adults, to consider lying on the floor."
Madeleine: "Yeah, I guess."
Me: "Is it comfortable?"
Madeleine: "It's OK."
Me: "I bet."

Sonnet: "We slept until 10AM!"
Eitan: "That's nothing."

Sat UR daY

From Friday to Saturday.

On a freezing morning that takes the car 15 minutes to defrost, I take Eitan to Hampton School where the A Squad takes on the Wilson School ("the Wilsons"), who the boys dispatch 2-1. Eitan guards No. 17 who is signed with Reading FC and does a good job of it though he's turned around as often as not. I warm up with a jog in Bushy Park. Meanwhile Sonnet with Madeleine on the other side of town at Swiss Cottage for Madeleine's weekly drama class.

I spend the afternoon raking leaves followed by the last episode of 'True Detective.' Matthew McConaughey my new favorite actor.

Ancient Dome

Yes, we visit the other worldly Pantheon whose 4,535 metric tons weight of the Roman concrete dome is concentrated on a ring of voussoirs 9.1 metres in diameter that form the oculus, while the downward thrust of the dome is carried by eight barrel valuts in the 6.4 metres thick drum wall into eight piers. The thickness of the dome varies from 6.4 metres at the base of the dome to 1.2 metres around the oculu.

We visit Tazza D'Oro ("Cup of Gold") for a frozen espresso with whipped cream.

Despite all the washi washa regarding immigration, the UN reports that the percentage of "international immigrants" to the world's population is unchanged since 1960 at 3%.  The real story is urban migration as cities will attract 75% of the world's population by 2100.  Would the Romans have agreed? Probably. 

Rome II

Villa Borghese overlooking the gardends

We have a delightful dinner hosted by Amanda (the Jewellery expert), her husband Octavia (the composer), Enrico (the collector), Paolo (the exhibitor), Heidi (the art historian) and Martin (the photographer). All deeply involved in fashion and the gossips that surround their interest.

Amanda's home overlooks the ancient ruins and situated not far from where Romulus and Remus, the founders of Rome, were thought recovered.

Sonnet furiously edits "Alexander McQueen, Savage Beauty" - 300 pages and due this week. Since it is the final-final version, "only corkers" are allowed to be flagged.

The kids kept to their routine by the fabulous Klara who works double time getting them to school and their various activities.

Tiber

The ancient Tiber River

According to legend, the city of Rome was founded in 753 BC on the banks of the Tiber about 16 miles from the sea at Ostia. The island Isola Tiberina (right side of my photo) in the centre of Rome, between Trastevere and the ancient center, was the site of an important ancient ford and was later bridged. Today it hosts a hospital. Legend says Rome's founders, the twin brothers Romulus and Remus, were abandoned on its waters, where they were rescued by the she-wolf, Lupa.

The Tiber was critically important to Roman trade and commerce as ships could reach as far as 60 miles upriver. I've jogged along the bank but it is not particularly pleasant and, in fact, rather dirty with trash and other waste. Rome is a city clean with humanity.

Weirdly the temperatures are in the 70s and it feels like a late summer day despite December. But not much to complain about, really, unless you think the planet is doomed.

Hannibal Tattoo

The tattoo parlour, outside Manuela's apartment, is one of Rome's best.