Wednesday, May 6

A-I-G


AIG now says its paid-out bonuses of $454 million in 2008, or 4X greater than initially reported. This a shrewed calculation I think - get the bonus thing into the public domain then, once the tides recede, raise the amounts. Smart. Still, it is small beer compared to the amount AIG has received in federa aid, which now >$170 billion - an unimaginable number, really - think education. Or infrastrurture. Public works or the arts. Oh, well. Most people by now generally sick of Wall Street and hearing about the ongoing mess. Part of the reason, of course, the complexity and its relentless nature. Who can really understand TARP or quantitative easing (though boy do we know a bunk bonus scheme when we see it). I had dinner with two friends last night who are at the cutting edge of our salvation. Eric works for consulting firm McKinsey & Co. where he was co-head of global strategy before consutling governement; he has written a tomb The Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics. His book describes how advances in fields ranging from evolutionary theory, to physics, biology, computer science and cognitive sciences are changing the way economists view the workings of the economy. David, who we were with several weeks ago in Bath, ran Morgan Stanley's hedge-fund business and early-on concerned about the bank's massive, uncontrolled nor wholly understood balance-sheet exposure. David now a Special Senior Advisor to David Miliband. The general mood, unfortunately, gloomy and they question why Obama has not used his early political capital to wipe out failed-bank shareholders, instead giving them a free pass with $trillions of our bail-out money. Geithner and we prey that the private-sector will fill the capital-vacuum but until Treasury marks assets realistically (which they won't, given their propped up insolvency) investors remain shy. Our Yellow-Brick-Road paved by Japan, whose fits and starts netted a "lost generation" and rather than diverge from that experience, we follow them to Kansas. Or in today's world - Pakistan, which crumbles under the external financial stresses with their nukes and extremism+a hair's breath from civil chaos.

London noticeably quiet last night as I drive to dinner in Mayfair.. what could it be? Oh, right - football and a huge game: Manchester United vs. Arsenal at Highbury. Eitan has five lads over to scream and cheer and there is plenty to be grateful for as the Red Devils defeat arch rival 3-1 in the FA Cup semi-final. Ronaldo nails a 41 yard free kick at 10 minutes - holy mackerel! - then another for lights-out. The famed Arsenal coach Arsen Wenger calls it "the worst night of my career." For six little kids in Richmond, it is exactly the opposite.

From Ronaldo, pictured, is it too obvious to point out who sponsors Manchester United, the most valuable franchise in the world? You and me, baby. You and me.