Last Sighting

That sucker is gone.

Blast Off

Johnny pushes the button

We launch the "The Payloader" 2,000 feet into the windy atmosphere never to be seen again. Well worth it.

Madeleine: "Are you going to Paris this week?"
Me: "Zurich tomorrow. But I'll be home for dinner."
Madeleine: "You're going for one day?"
Me: "Yep."
Madeleine: "What's the point of that?"

It's The Oil, Stupid

Williston Basin, North Dakota

A barrel of oil now goes for 57 bucks or a 40% decline since October. Go figure. A price cut of 25% (if maintained) means that global GDP will be roughly 0.5% higher than it would be otherwise. Some countries of course will gain a lot more than that average - In China, a $1 drop per barrel saves the country $2.1bn. So for instance, the world produces just over 90m b/d of oil. At $115 a barrel, that is worth roughly $3.8 trillion a year; at $85, just $2.8 trillion. Any country or group that consumes more than it produces gains from the $1 trillion transfer—importers, most of all.

For the US it will be a mixed bag because America is simultaneously the world’s largest consumer, importer and producer of oil. On balance cheaper oil will help the average Joe but not as much as it used to. Goldman Sachs reckons that cheaper oil and lower interest rates should add about 0.1 percentage points to growth in 2015. But that will be more than offset by a stronger dollar, slower global growth and weaker stockmarkets.

I started my career in First Boston's natural resources group (NRG) before switching to financial services. The former much more interesting.

DC

A Man In His Prime

We spend the weekend with David and Tabitha and their family.

David's consultancy, Macro Advisory Partners, going great guns with 20 clients including big brands, global companies and a few sovereigns. David does the macro and he is a genius: like no one I know he ties the pieces together: politics, risk, financial markets, currencies, geo political issues .. . money.

Holiday Season

Merry, merry

We get into the Xmas spirit with the countdown less than two weeks. Sonnet puts lights up in front of the house and we decorate the Christmas tree.

Dior uses Led Zeppelin's "Whole Lotta Love" to promote Dior Homme Fragrance starring Robert Pattison. Initially I was WTF but the uncensored version (youtube) is pretty fabulous. Shake for me baby, I want to be your backdoor man.

Bang Bang

And it is Friday. Again.

This week it's the Nordics and I find myself in Copenhagen, Oslo, Stockholm (Nobel prize being awarded) and Helsinki. It is cold and winter and the sun rises at 9AM and sets by 3PM. Strange life for those who live here yet it is also charming with Christmas lights and storefront candles. I force myself to run in the early darkness and watch the cyclers and commuters brace themselves against the weather. No wonder this part of the world drinks more coffee than anywhere else.

Madeleine: "I love The Kooks."
Me: "Yep."
Madeleine: "Have you heard of the song 'Slim Shady?"
Me: "Of course. That's ancient."
Madeleine: "I was so proud of you when I learned that you knew Eminem."
Me: "Have you heard of the song 'Bang Bang?"
Madeleine: "Of course, Dad."
Me: "What do you think she's singing about?"
Madeleine: "I don't know. Anyway I'm not saying."
Me: "So when she says, 'bang! bang! all over me' what does that mean?"
Madeleine:
Me: "Back in my day, we only listened to songs about bunny rabbits. And cats."
Madeleine (under her breath): "Yeah, right."
Me: "Bang bang! the cute little rabbit jumped over a tree."
Madeleine: "Can I be excused now?"

The Big Hole

Our triumph (1975)

Todd (the one on the right) and I neighbours and best of friends until we moved house in 1977 (eventually Todd's family headed for Healdsburg where we would visit - we hunted frogs on the dried out Russian River banks or shot arrows and BB guns).

In this particular photo we dug a hole in Todd's backyard. Who knows why? but it was deep, eventually deep enough to sink the two of us. Our summer days filled with the work. We found all sorts of bugs and critters with jaws that we put into jars or made fight.

When not digging we were building tree forts. Or making go carts. Constructing battleships from planks of wood. Or (my favourite) drawing posters of Star Trek episodes on paper dispatched from Todd's father's printer (the paper had removable ridges on the sides for the printer to "bite" the paper and move it through the gears). We built plastic models of the Starship Enterprise and the Klingon B'Moth or Amar and then melted them during epic laser and photon torpedo space battles. Good times for a kid.

Today Todd lives in Chico with his wife and two boys. He is a retired captain and firefighter.

Madeleine: "Can I ask Gracie and Moe to get me a BB gun for Christmas?"
Me: "Absolutely not."
Madeleine: "But why?"
Me: "Because it's a gun."
Madeleine: "But in 'To Kill A Mockingbird' Atticus bought Jim and Scout a riffle."
Me: "Nice reference but it's still no."
Madeleine: "So unfair."

Father Son Jog

Post Richmond Park 5 mile loop

Me: "You're just lying on the floor?" [Dad's note: Madeleine lies on her bedroom floor texting on her iPhone]
Madeleine: "Yep."
Me: "It's kind of unusual, for us adults, to consider lying on the floor."
Madeleine: "Yeah, I guess."
Me: "Is it comfortable?"
Madeleine: "It's OK."
Me: "I bet."

Sonnet: "We slept until 10AM!"
Eitan: "That's nothing."

Sat UR daY

From Friday to Saturday.

On a freezing morning that takes the car 15 minutes to defrost, I take Eitan to Hampton School where the A Squad takes on the Wilson School ("the Wilsons"), who the boys dispatch 2-1. Eitan guards No. 17 who is signed with Reading FC and does a good job of it though he's turned around as often as not. I warm up with a jog in Bushy Park. Meanwhile Sonnet with Madeleine on the other side of town at Swiss Cottage for Madeleine's weekly drama class.

I spend the afternoon raking leaves followed by the last episode of 'True Detective.' Matthew McConaughey my new favorite actor.

Ancient Dome

Yes, we visit the other worldly Pantheon whose 4,535 metric tons weight of the Roman concrete dome is concentrated on a ring of voussoirs 9.1 metres in diameter that form the oculus, while the downward thrust of the dome is carried by eight barrel valuts in the 6.4 metres thick drum wall into eight piers. The thickness of the dome varies from 6.4 metres at the base of the dome to 1.2 metres around the oculu.

We visit Tazza D'Oro ("Cup of Gold") for a frozen espresso with whipped cream.

Despite all the washi washa regarding immigration, the UN reports that the percentage of "international immigrants" to the world's population is unchanged since 1960 at 3%.  The real story is urban migration as cities will attract 75% of the world's population by 2100.  Would the Romans have agreed? Probably. 

Rome II

Villa Borghese overlooking the gardends

We have a delightful dinner hosted by Amanda (the Jewellery expert), her husband Octavia (the composer), Enrico (the collector), Paolo (the exhibitor), Heidi (the art historian) and Martin (the photographer). All deeply involved in fashion and the gossips that surround their interest.

Amanda's home overlooks the ancient ruins and situated not far from where Romulus and Remus, the founders of Rome, were thought recovered.

Sonnet furiously edits "Alexander McQueen, Savage Beauty" - 300 pages and due this week. Since it is the final-final version, "only corkers" are allowed to be flagged.

The kids kept to their routine by the fabulous Klara who works double time getting them to school and their various activities.

Tiber

The ancient Tiber River

According to legend, the city of Rome was founded in 753 BC on the banks of the Tiber about 16 miles from the sea at Ostia. The island Isola Tiberina (right side of my photo) in the centre of Rome, between Trastevere and the ancient center, was the site of an important ancient ford and was later bridged. Today it hosts a hospital. Legend says Rome's founders, the twin brothers Romulus and Remus, were abandoned on its waters, where they were rescued by the she-wolf, Lupa.

The Tiber was critically important to Roman trade and commerce as ships could reach as far as 60 miles upriver. I've jogged along the bank but it is not particularly pleasant and, in fact, rather dirty with trash and other waste. Rome is a city clean with humanity.

Weirdly the temperatures are in the 70s and it feels like a late summer day despite December. But not much to complain about, really, unless you think the planet is doomed.

Hannibal Tattoo

The tattoo parlour, outside Manuela's apartment, is one of Rome's best.

Bru Re United

Bru and his bike

We spend Sunday with Sonnet's cousin Bru who is a mad genius with near perfect recall applied to art, film, television and anything that grabs him (Bru dropped out and followed the Grateful Dead post high school then applied to Cornell, at 23 or 24, and was accepted). He has lived in Italy over 15 years and his personality somehow suited for here - the gesticulating hand motions, the Italian's love of argument...  Last we saw Bru, he was working in the Vatican and I recall his dark suit and tie, emblazoned with naked erotica, hidden whenever a priest or higher up went by. Oi vey.

Now Bru raises his son, Lucca, a beautiful child interested in football, video games and school.  He is in good hands. I wonder when we will see Bru next? It will likely be a while.

Maxxi

Along with flutes of Champagne and fancy cocktails we and are greeted by a "living art" display of naked women, about 30, covered in pink veils who stair at us directly or distractedly as their pointy breasts and wispy pubic hair draws one's uncomfortable attention. Appetisers are served. Sonnet says hello to Miuccia Prada.

The party filled with major politicos, film stars and (of course) models along with the beautiful people (men) while we are guests of the glamorous Anna Zegna whose company Ermenegildo Zegna is one of the largest fabrics manufactures in the world while producing men's suits for its own label and Gucci, Yves Saint Laurent and Tom Ford. I am seated next to Francis, Anna's husband, who runs the fabrics business and we compare notes on Tokyo, New York and London and other various places we have been in the last few months. He is elegant in a way somehow unique to Italians - stylish, clever and understated.

"It all started with you."
--Stefano Tonchi, Curator of Belissima, to Sonnet

Rome

Coliseum, taken from the taxi. Restoration work funded by Tod's

Sonnet and I to Rome on Saturday to re-connect with a favourite city I have not been to since, gasp, pre-kids without kids (gasp!). Sonnet has been here regularly for her exhibition. Following a day at the National Museum filled with beautiful ancient Roman sculptures, mosaics and frescos, we attend the opening party for "Belissima", an exhibition on .. Italian fashion .. at the Maxxi Museum. 

Rough Day

Richmond Park

And it's Friday, another week gone by.

Eitan runs the 3k borough championships, which he has owned for the past four years. Lining up, our hero not 100% with a cold and still catching up from missed training due to osgood schlatter. More so, the curve is catching up: the boys who train are making strides during these all important youthful years.

Eitan finishes 11th after rounding the half-way at fourth. The second loop and a difficult hill does him in. Not a bad result but he's disappointed as the top 9 qualify for counties.

Me: "Do you think I'm bald?"
Madeleine:
Me: "Seriously. What do you think."
Madeleine: "Well, um, you're not bald. I mean you have hair."
Me: "But you can see my head."
Madeleine: "It's like 65%. You have 65% hair on your head."
Me: "So 35% bald. I can live with that."
Madeleine:

Thanksgiving Sunday

Halley and Sonnet

Willem picks up a 14 lb turkey from an Oxford colleague and professor who, when not on campus, owns a small holding where he raises free range livestock (I love the eccentricity). The bird, named Cyril, arrives frozen and goes straight into the oven for five hours, perfectly done at the end. 

We enjoyed a large American ex pat community in our first years in London - a group now mostly dispersed across the US and around the world. We hosted a number of Thanksgivings for 20 or 25 people in our flat in Maida Vale, crawling under the table to serve people. One thing that has changed: I now watch the Detroit Lions vs. the New England Patriots. I only need to tap my ruby slippers together three times . ..

Eitan's Hampton School A team loses 1-nil to Chigwell School.

It feels like it should be a holiday but back to work tomorrow.

Happy Returns

Halley and Willem

Halley and Sonnet spend the day preparing early Thanksgiving. Big things are happening in their family: Willem is heading up the Oxford's mindfulness center having built up a similar program and first of its kind at Exeter University. He is two weeks on the job. He is also taking up a Chair at the Univ of Oxford as Prof of Clinical Psychology in the Dept of Psychiatry and notes "that I feel like a young Turk again" and one should always feel on the up and up. [Dad's note: One of the major research programs Willem is working on is mindfulness at secondary schools and Hampton School was one of the first to sign on].

Zoe is in her AS levels preparing for her exams and running cross country (she recently won a race in East Devon) while Ava continues to pursue top level football with the Oxford United FA Center of Excellence. Halley keeps it all together and moving forward in a most forceful direction. Halley is also involved with CIC which offers mindfulness courses in Exeter.

Me: "Give me a quote."
Zoe: "Lower your voice and strengthen your argument." 
Willem: "I can respect that."

Christmas At Claridges

I am in Paris this week so Sonnet attends solo the launch of the Dolce & Gabbanna Christmas tree at Claridges with, you know, a lot of models. Sonnet says, "that sucker [ie, the tree] is big, maybe 20 feet high". The kids impressed to learn that 'Made In Chelsea Star' Mark Francis in attendance (Eitan: "Did you get a selfie?")

In Paris the lack of foot traffic on rue de Faubourg St Honoree a marked contrast to year's past. The lack of buzz reflective of France, which is somehow demoralized with its lagging economy, deficits and failure of leadership. Young people in Paris want to be in London and South Kensington now has over 400k of France's brightest. Yet, and despite this, Paris remains the most magical European city and I am lucky to know it.