The Dude

Earl Cambell's stardom coincided with my keenest interest in football : 1978-82, when Cambell played for the Houston Oilers and coached by 'good 'ole boy' Bum Phillips. I sat at the back of the Orange school bus, winding through the North Berkeley hills on my way to Longfellow elementary, and considered Cambell's 34 inch thighs : easily larger than my chest. I palmed Sports Illustrated and scrubbed Cambell's stats - awesome. Was this my first male love? Could be. With Cambell, the Oilers good yet never able it to make the Super Bowl; the Steelers or Raiders denied them every time.

Campbell possessed speed and power and , from 1978 to '85, rushed for 9,407 yards and 74 touchdowns along with 806 yards on 121 receptions. In 1980, his best year in the NFL, Cambell ran for 1,934 and striking distance of OJ Simpson's 2,000 yard single-season rushing record. Cambell did this despite playing against stacked defences. In '79, Cambell was All-Pro, NFL Offensive Player of the Year and played in the first of his five Pro Bowls; In '91 he was inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame.

"Two kinds of ballplayers aren't worth a darn: One that never does what he's told, and one who does nothin' except what he's told. "
--Bum Philipps

Jacob Goldman - RIP

Jacob Goldman (standing), the dude you never heard of, yet without him, no Bill Gates nor Steve Jobs nor the Facebook guy, is dead at 90. Goldman was Xerox’s chief scientist and founded the company’s Palo Alto Research Center, which invented the modern personal computer. There is no wiki entry on Goldman. This the only photo I could find of Goldman, from the NYT.

Xerox BTW one of those companies held in my grandparents' pension from the 1960s and, with other US corporate giants like Kodak and IBM, allowed my grandmother a comfortable retirement in Sarasota, Florida. Consider how her generation benefited from a growing economy: a "balanced" portfolio of 50:50 stocks and bonds returned 12%, assuming 8% equity returns (appreciation+dividends) and 4% bond yields, for 30 years. Since 2000, equities have produced 3-4% and the 10-year govt treasury almost nil. This barely beats inflation.

What does this mean for middle-agers ? Either more risk on our investing or a longer work-life and, most likely, both+a substantially reduced retirement.

Golden Gate

My parents pre-me. My dad had yet to pass the State Bar and my mom to start her Montessori school. Before Berkeley, even.  Before Katie and all the family friends I grew up with.

First Dradle

2000, Eitan's first Chanukah Christmas. He looks as suspicious of my parenting as I am dubious of fatherhood.

The V&A Christmas party held in the grand entrance under the Chihuly and next to the Roman statues; the musum otherwise closed to the public.  What a wonderful place for a party.  A DJ spins underneath early MTV video clips : "postmodernism holdover" Sonnet notes.  Madeleine takes it all in : she is respectful and dutifully shakes hands and stands at attention. She is most intrigued by the costumes: A women in orange and pink dress with Coke cans for breasts. Another fellow as Robert Smith of the Cure. Or, wait, that is Robert Smith.  Must be difficult seeing everything waste height. Afterwards we have Madeleine's new favorite : sushi.

Scrooge

I tell Madeleine's class the story of Scrooge answering the question: How did he get here? This in line with the class's focus on The Victorians, so we begin describing the London of then : dirty, rancid, gross. In my world, Scrooge from a rich family and sent to boarding school where he is bullied but no more than most.  So far, so good. By midlife, he owns a successful manufacturing company which provides for hundreds of families. He is beloved. He is generous.  But calamity strikes: his accountant , Santa Cruz Capitola (Yes, both Norcal surfing locations) cooks the books and soon Scrooge  .. destitute.  He must remake himself at the road's fork: wealth and bitterness or love and redemption. We know how the story ends .. as . . I sink . into.. . . the floor . .. the old Scrooge in ruin. The kids' eyes bugged.

More Carols

Rusty pees on his bed in the kitchen.
Me: "What the hell is wrong with this animal?"
Madeleine: "You are not giving him away, are you Dad?"
Me: "No, of course not."
Madeleine: "I thought so."
Me: "Unless he keeps it up."
Madeleine: "Dad!"

Me: "I have to think of something for Madeleine's story-time tomorrow.  About Scrooge. Who can give me some ideas?"
Eitan: "I don't know. Talk about Tiny Tim or something."
Me: "I'm going to dress up as Scrooge and tell his side of the story."
Madeleine: "Really? Can I help then?"
Me: "I'm not even sure what I am going to do."
Madeleine: "I can be one of the ghosts!"
Me: "What do you think could have happened to, you know, make Scrooge Scrooge?
Eitan: "He was from a rich family. And he went to boarding school."
Madeleine: "His Dad wrote him a note telling him he wasn't his kid."
Sonnet: "Really?"
Madeleine: "It could have happened. In Dad's imagination."
Me: "Just give me some ideas on the worst thing that can happen to a kid."
Madeleine: "If he has a dog. And the dad gives the dog away."

Rusty's In The Mood, People

Rusty in shape. I take him jogging. Sonnet takes him jogging. Sometimes he gets in two runs+a walk or two a day. He craves the exercise and bonkers without.

We say good bye to David and Claire, who almost died this year from a super bug and in hospital for 30-days, and Wilfie and Bertie who have known Eitan and Madeleine since ages three or four in pre-school and Kids Works football. They are moving to the country. David and I have logged a lot of time together, often under-dressed for the weather, huddled and miserable watching our kids running back and forth and back and forth . . .

Madeleine has a swimming competition and comes home jazzed by the 25-meter sprints. While they do not qualify her for anything, there is also less pressure and she has a good time (NB Wandsworth Swim Club has three swimmers who have qualified for the Olympic Trials in March 2012, which we will go see).

Eitan's Elm Grove play Kings Park who are tops of the Premiere Elite and we beat in the first game of the season, 3-2. Today it is a blow out with us on the wrong side of 5-1. The teams tied 1-1 at half but, once the go-ahead ceded, Elm Grove collapses.  Eitan sick and miserable and, if not for Jack being absent, he would have missed today's battle (he now watches Aston Villa v. Liverpool on the couch, under the blankets). It is the last game before the holiday break and the boys nonetheless pleased with where they are: somewhere in the upper-middle of one of the most competitive youth leagues in Britain; relegation unlikely with five-games to go in the season.

Václav Havel dies, age-75. Havel stood against communism and the first domino to fall against the USSR. Kamila from the Czech Republic and tells me there will be a national holiday in his honour.

Marilyn's Pants

Marilyn on display, in Chicago. Photo from artist friend Grace.

Truman Capote wrote a wonderful profile of Monroe in his 1980 "Music for Chameleons" based on an afternoon spent together in 1955, excerpted below.  They were a most unusual drinking pair : the glamorous and the homunculus.

Truman Capote: "Now do you think we can get the hell out of here? You promised me champagne, remember?"
MARILYN: " I remember. But I don’t have any money."
TC:  "You’re always late and you never have any money. By any chance are you under the delusion that you’re Queen Elizabeth?"
MARILYN: " Who?"
TC: "Queen Elizabeth. The Queen of England."
MARILYN: (frowning) "What’s that cunt got to do with it?"
TC: "Queen Elizabeth never carries money either. She’s not allowed to. Filthy lucre must not stain the royal palm. It’s a law or something."
MARILYN: " I wish they’d pass a law like that for me."
TC: "Keep going the way you are and maybe they will."
MARILYN: "Well, gosh. How does she pay for anything? Like when she goes shopping?"
TC: "Her lady-in-waiting trots along with a bag full of farthings."
MARILYN: "You know what? I’ll bet she gets everything free. In return for endorsements."
TC: "Very possible. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised. By Appointment to Her Majesty. Corgi dogs. All those Fortnum & Mason goodies. Pot. Condoms."
MARILYN: "What would she want with condoms?"
TC: "Not her, dopey. For that chump who walks two steps behind. Prince Philip."
MARILYN: "Him. Oh, yeah. He’s cute. He looks like he might have a nice prick. Did I ever tell you about the time I saw Errol Flynn whip out his prick and play the piano with it? Oh well, it was a hundred years ago, I’d just got into modeling, and I went to this half-ass party, and Errol Flynn, so pleased with himself, he was there and he took out his prick and played the piano with it. Thumped the keys. He played You Are My Sunshine. Christ! Everybody says Milton Berle has the biggest schlong in Hollywood. But who cares? Look, don’t you have any money?"
TC: "Maybe about fifty bucks."
MARILYN: "Well, that ought to buy us some bubbly."

MARILYN: "Remember, I said if anybody ever asked you what I was like, what Marilyn Monroe was really like—well, how would you answer them? (Her tone was teaseful, mocking, yet earnest, too: she wanted an honest reply.) I bet you’d tell them I was a slob. A banana split. "
TC: " Of course. But I’d also say…"
(The light was leaving. She seemed to fade with it, blend with the sky and clouds, recede beyond them. I wanted to lift my voice louder than the seagulls’ cries and call her back: “Marilyn! Marilyn, why did everything have to turn out the way it did? Why does life have to be so rotten?”)
TC: "I’d say… "
MARILYN: "I can’t hear you. "
TC: " I’d say you are a beautiful child."

Ensemble. Or Not

The fabulous Ms B, who has been the music instructor as long at the kids have been at their local primary, somehow gets 200 kids to sing Christmas carols. In harmony.

Which is not  something the broader European Union capable of doing. Consider the right's agenda of slashing spending to reduce govt debt during a fiscal crisis and economic recession. Case Study #1: Greece, who will announce shortly the closure of 2,000 public schools. Nobody denies Greece gorged itself at the trough : we also agree that they need to get their debt:GNP ratio down, down, down. Exiting the Union an unpleasant option given the Western World's exposure to this pip squeak economy via aggressive lending.

So , then, what has happened to Greece since the German troika began 20 months ago? Unable to shift trade with a floating currency (euro) , unsurprisingly the Greece economy has collapsed 20%, and forecasted to recede a further 7% in 2012.  In 2010 Greece had about 140% public debt to GNP; Today it is 185%.

Greece doesn't produce anything the world really needs, other than sunshine and seaside property, so lenders should have never gone there. Italy, on the other hand , a different scenario : they do have a diversified economy and private wealth yet have been in the dull drums the last ten years with <1% growth.  This fine when the country can borrow at 2%; at 6-7%, where we are today , there is trouble. Unfortunately, again, austerity imposed and Italy's economy .. contracting.  Their debt ratio .. rising.

God Save The Queen

Madeleine and Alex practice "God Save The Queen" and "Rumpoint"; she performs a solo at the Friday assembly

Me: "What are you doing?"
Eitan: "Walking backwards up the stairs." 
 Indeed, these are weird times. The Euro may dissolve taking the European Union with it (or maybe not). Either way Germany will own a large part of the Eurozone. America spends over $1T on Iraq giving us .. what ? Neighbouring Afghanistan a jihadist mess and soon Iran will have a nuclear device unless, that is, Israel bombs them first. Oil prices could hit $200 a barrel. Or fall to $50, given the global recession and the economist you believe.  Newt Gingrich is a freak and the front-runner of the Retard party. And the pollution : despite every indication that the planet cooking, the 191 nations sign the Kyoto protocol ensuring we begin to deal with the problem no sooner than 2020.

And what of Little Britain in all this? Over lunch at the British Museum, I am persuaded that, perhaps, Cameron not "high" when he refuses to endorse changes to the Lisbon Treaty. As my friend says: Britain foretold the crisis - why should we pay for the mess ? While Cameron's departure could have been done more diplomatically , it is all a side-show to the Big Tent: if the Euro fails , it is each for his own.

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
--Hunter S Thompson

Chinatown and Relativety, Revisited

Madeleine in Chinatown.

Me, driving to Fulham fb practise: I can't believe it's almost Christmas."
Eitan: "Yeah . ."
Me: "Does it feel like time goes by quickly?"
Eitan: "Sometimes it does, like last Christmas doesn't seem too long ago."
Me: "Just think about it. The Big Bang occurred 13.7 billion years ago, forming our galaxy and spreading anti-mater across the Universe."
Eitan: "Where are you going with this?"
Me: "And homo sapiens, like, 200,000 years ago and they were competing with homo eructus.  It could have gone either way."
Eitan:
Me: "The first etchings of man 30,000 years ago - by hunters and stuff."
Eitan:
Me: "And the first markings of human civilisation 10,000 years ago."
Eitan: "Yeah, so?"
Me: "And we live maybe 80 years. It just doesn't make any sense."
Eitan: "A hamster lives for two years."
Me: "And?"
Eitan: "And we live a lot longer than a hamster."

Brazil Room - Venture Capital

Mom and me at the Brazil Room in 1987.

Think venture doesn't matter?  Companies less than five years old have generated all the net jobs in the US economy since the 1970s, according to the Kauffman Foundation.  All the more pleasing, then, that Correlation Ventures raises their $165 million maiden fund : two years of blood, sweat and tears - but they got it done.

And here is the US jobs problem: from the mid-1980s to mid-2000s, 450,000 to 550,000 businesses with at least one employee created each year. In 2009, there were under 400,000 - the slow down began in 2006 BTW, and not just following Lehman.  While most companies fail - over 90% of vc backed companies do so - the survivors account for a huge portion of the new jobs. Anyone in SV knows this.

For most of the 1990s, new jobs , equal to about 8% of total employment, created every quarter, while jobs disappeared at a rate of about 7.5% (Schumpter's 'creative destruction'), so the total number of people in work rose. Starting in 2000, both job creation and elimination began to drift downwards even as employment recovered after the 2000-01 recession. In the 2007-09 recession, job creation plunged while job losses soared- as would be expected - but the trend since has been less predictable.

Job destruction has fallen and is now well below its rate in the 1990s, when the economy much stronger. Job creation, however, remains weak - at about 6.5% employment. This why America's unemployment stubborn.  Chronic?

Is He High?

PM David Cameron decides, by himself it seems, to pull Britain out of the European Union undoing several generation's hard work after the Second World War. This during the ongoing never-ending European crisis which has me so bored I cannot bare the orange-ish Financial Times. 26 countries BTW decide to go with Germany , who tighten the screws ever deeper into the soft temple of the Union's scull, with more punishing austerity. The krauts love it : they get a cheap currency to export their BMWs while the others suffer for their pig-troughing ways.  Let us hope that Merkal does not over play her hand.

So why should I be pissed off at Cameron? Well, first of all, Britain is part of Europe. I mean, "duh." Only now we have diminished influence on trade agreements, pollution, farm subsidies and other matters.  As they say in Brussels: "If you are not at lunch, you are the meal."

Madeleine: "How long would it take to fly to Africa?"
Me: "Well it depends."
Madeleine: "On what?"
Me: "On the plane. Is it a glider? for instance."
Madeleine: "On a normal plane Dad."
Sonnet: "A flying carpet?"
Eitan: "A Spitfire!"
Madeleine: "A normal plane like British Airways."
Me: "Africa is a pretty big continent so where do you want to go?"
Madeleine: "A place where I can see the lions and the cantaloupe."

A Lot Of Water

This what 70,000 million gallons of water looks like : the difference between the tidal Thames being 'in' and 'out.' Until Victorian development narrowed the river and blocked the flood planes, the river spanned as wide as ten-kilometres during hi-tides ; since the volume of water indifferent, the hi-tide now goes further , changing from tidal to marsh at the Teddington Lock. On the other end, the Thames's source in Gloucestshire or 215 miles west of the North Sea.

To protect the most expensive real estate in the world, the most expensive flood barrier built. The Thames Barrier constructed over eight years at a cost of £1B and completed in 1982. The barrier designed to protect us from flooding until the year 2030 following the '53 floods which drowned 300 people.

I am told that the TB, when fully raised, can withstand a '53 recurrence anticipated once or twice a generation. This type of volume now occurs monthly with the full moon and, by 2030, it may be a daily.

"If my critics saw me walking over the Thames they would say it was because I couldn't swim."
--Margaret Thatcher

SFBA

Every day I check , via the Laurence Hall of Science webcam, pictured, to see what the weather like in the San Francisco Bay Area.  I think of my parents and friends and wonder : what are they up to now ?

For a while , in the '70s, I was spending afternoons in the LHS computer center playing computer games.  This when one could make prints of Snoopy or the Peace Symbol with 'x' and 'o's.  I ran a program matching NFL teams allowing me to choose offense plays : run, pass, screen . .  I chose the same counter-plays on defense. From start to finish, a game might take 45 minutes.  Since I was an Oakland fan, I matched the Raiders against every team in the league; I stored the scrolls for years in my bedroom closet.

To get to the computers, I discovered a route straight up hill from my parent's house to LHS, pictured above.  There was no marked trail so all scramble.  Just one of those things a kid figures out.

Hammersmith Bridge @ Night

My favourite bridge, the Hammersmith Bridge. The tide is 'out.'

In June 2000 the bridge damaged by a Real IRA bomb planted underneath the Barnes span, or far side of my photo. The blast four-years after a previous attempted bombing by the Provisional IRA, but following two years of closure and traffic misery, the bridge reopened with weight baring restrictions.

The IRA's first try to destroy the bridge in '39 foiled by the quick-thinking hair dresser, Maurice Childs, of Chiswick, who was walking home in the early morning and noticed smoke and sparks coming from a suitcase. He opened it to find a bomb which he tossed into the river; the explosion sent up a 60-foot plume of water. A second device exploded causing girders on the west side of the bridge to collapse and shattering windows in nearby houses.

Maurice awarded an MBE for his courage while Eddie Connell and William Browne given jail sentences of 20 and 10 years, respectively, for the bombing.

Leslie Encore

My new fab friend Leslie invites me to the Arsenal v. Everton match with Dan and Sean, who is dating Sean, who we met with Leslie for dinner last week. Dan and Sean, the first Sean that is, are identical twins. Got that? Here we are at a pub in Finsbury before the game.  Leslie returns to El Lay Tuesday.

Selfridges Or Bust

This cool spinning objet stationed between floors at Selfridges department store - the London equivalent of Bloomingdales.  A black woman belts the blues from the third or fourth floor; elsewhere I am assaulted by Abba and other cleverly recycled music of my middle-aged yuf to put me in the mood to buy. Buy! Buy!!  Unbelievably I round a corner to face a young woman's ass in a tight-fitting bikini brief. The underwear department. Her male partner wears pink underpants; together they dance on a moving treadmill.

So this is where models spend their days outfitted in black leggings, hooker boots and fur which is all the rage. Where else can these silly people go, really?  A stylish Japanese lady directs me to the men's department which is on the first-floor or half a city block. All I want  is a stripey winter hat.

People always mean well. They cluck their thick tongues, and shake their heads and suggest, oh, so very delicately.. . . That last bit from Psycho. I sometimes feel like Norman watching the shoppers : stupidly fondling this year's collection of over-priced fabrics with "Super Dry" or "Ralph Lauren" attached.  Should one have the money, this the last bastion of unfettered expression. And, Lord knows, the people are discerning.

This time of year, in this kind of place, I am self-loathing.

Emanuel

Madeleine prepares for her first secondary-school interview at the Emanuel School, which has been around for over 400 years and 150 longer then my alma mater. The Deputy Head sweeps our girl away after giving me a firm handshake so I sit in the reception area drinking stale coffee, talking to a few mums whose children also interviewing, and mostly not fretting : Madeleine a good kid. And the Deputy Head agrees, taking me aside and saying so: "I will definitely recommend Madeleine to the school." Of course he may say this to every child he greets.  Now Madeleine must do well on her 10+ exam coming in January. The pressure on.

Madeleine: "Dad, is it allowed to have swear words in kids books?"
Me: "Well, then it wouldn't be a kid's book, would it?"
Madeleine: "Just say there was a swear word. Would it be allowed?"
Me: "No,  probably not."
Madeleine: "There is one. In the book I am reading."
Me: "Really?"
Madeleine: "It is one of the 'B' words."
Me: "Like Bee-atch?"
Madeleine: "Dad!"
Me: "Bastard? Bottom? Big Ass?"
Madeleine: "I am never talking to you again."
Me: "Breast. Boobs? Bollocks!"
Madeleine:
Me: "Did I guess it?"
Madeleine: "Yes, Dad, you got it."
Me: "Let me know if there are any more curse words."
Madeleine: "Yeah, right, Dad. And also I am not talking to you again. Ever."

Der Euro

Rusty joins me in the office oblivious to the crisis surrounding him.

So, to the Euro, which I am asked about often these days. In future, I will direct my friends here.  Sooo.. A break-up, even a partial one, would be chaotic. A full or comprehensive break-up, with the eurozone becoming a Greater Deutschmark with maybe ten other currencies, would create pandemonium. It would not be a planned, orderly, gradual unwinding of existing political, economic and legal commitments. Exit, partial or full, would probably be precipitated by disorderly sovereign defaults in the fiscally and competitively weak member states, whose currencies collapse and banks fail.  If Spain and Italy were to exit, there would be a collapse of systemically important financial institutions throughout the European Union and North America and years of global depression.

Consider ditching Greece, which amounts to just 2% of the eurozone economy : Most contracts, including bank deposits, sovereign debt, pensions and wages would be denominated in new Drachma and a sharp devaluation of, say 65%, of the new currency would follow.  As soon as an exit anticipated, depositors would flee Greek banks and all new lending governed by Greek law would in effect cease. Even before the exit, the sovereign and the banking system would fail b/c of a lack of funding.  Following the exit, contracts and finl instruments written under foreign law would probably remain euro-dominated. Balance sheets would become unbalanced and widespread default, insolvency and bankruptcy would result. Greek output would collapse.

Greece would temporarily gain a competitive advantage from the sharp decline in the new Drachma's value but, like Portugal, Spain and Italy, Greece does not have the persistent nominal rigidities to make it a lasting competitive advantage. Sovereign wage and price inflation would restore the uncompetitive status quo. Without external funding, imports would collapse, disrupting domestic production. Aggregate demand and aggregate supply would chase each other downwards.

If Greece kicked out because other member states (Germany) refuse to fund the Greek sovereign and the European Central Bank refuses to fund Greek banks, the markets would beam on the next most likely country to go.This would prompt a run on that country's banks and stop funding for its sovereign, financial institutions and companies.  Fear might then force the departure of the afflicted country. Exit contagion might sweep right through the rest of the eurozone periphery - Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy -and then Belgium, Austria and France.

Boom.