David Gerrard Zuma

Photo from 2008. How these kids change. I have dinner at Zuma, London's hottest Japanese, with Gerrard and David who returns from Davos where he accompanied David Miliband as Special Advisor (an aside re Zuma: while the sushi sublime, it is the crowd that attracts, in particular the young women - 24 to 29, I would guess, toned, polished and on show. Colorful skirts and slender legs. Not the slightest trace of disappointment nor life's struggle. Theirs is tonight).

David met about everybody at Davos and his most fascinating story about Wen Jiabao, China's PM, since China David's particular interest is China which, he notes, will urbanise 300 million people inside 20 years creating huge opportunities for the West. China's expanding middle class will demand things like technology, services and education which we are well placed to provide. If, for instance, Britain can realise 1% incremental GDP growth from Asia over ten years, our £1.5T deficit will shrink to nothing.

Gerrard, who invests hedge funds using demographic quant models, holds a different view: he notes that the British population under age-40 will shrink by 25 million by 2040 while the US under-40s will grow by 25M if replenishment and immigration rates hold true. The industrialised world's declining population has profound implications for our economy's ability to sustain an aging population. When I was born, the West accounted for approximately 30% of the world's population. By 2040, it will be less than 10%. One had better be on the right side of that investment. Dave and Gerrard buying the long-bond.

Eitan: "I'm doing a writing project where each of us has to write a chapter of the story."

Me: "What was your chapter?"

Eitan: "I am doing 'the closet of the unwanted'."

Madeleine: "Excuse me, Mom, but this has nothing to do with the conversation. Can you twist your tongue like this?"

Madeleine twists her tongue upside over.

Eitan: "Madeleine! Stop interrupting!"

Madeleine: "You're just upset 'cuz you can't do it Eitan."

Eitan: "Can!"

Madeleine: "Show me, then."

Eitan: "Dad!"

Me:

Madeleine: "Can I have my cookies and milk in the bath?"

Sonnet accommodates her.

Madeleine: "I have learned four notes with my trumpet."

Me: "Out of six?"

Sonnet: "Don't listen to your dad. Why don't you play them for us?"

Madeleine belts out her notes which sound suspiciously the same.

Madeleine: "Maybe I will be a professional trumpet player when I am older."