Black Swans And Equilibriums
In his 2007 book, "The Black Swan," Nassim Nicholas Taleb notes that all major scientific discovery, historical events, and artistic accomplishments outliers or "black swans." They include things like 9/11, personal computing, World War I and so on and so forth. These unforeseen events can blow out the most thorough predictive models. A pattern holds for years or even generations then – bang! – some seismic event and all bets off. I think about this in equilibriums that, once unsettled by a black swann, never return to their prior state; they become something else. And so .. global warming. Copenhagen today brings countries together to discuss climate change and - shocker - the United States joins following eight years of Bush & Co. As W said: "It's time for the human race to enter the solar system."
And here is the black swan: for the last one million years, carbons in our atmosphere remarkably stable at 280 parts per million. We know this from glacial sampling. In November, 2007, CO2 concentration 384 ppm or 35% higher than 1832 ice core levels. Since the Industrial Revolution, humans have put one-half trillion tons of carbon into the atmosphere (Source: Univ. of California, La Jolla, CDIC). Everything surrounding us created from cheap energy. Further, given our population size, we will double CO2 levels inside forty years. This does not mean the planet’s destruction; it does mean humans may not be able to live here. Go figure that George Bush may look smart.
And here is the black swan: for the last one million years, carbons in our atmosphere remarkably stable at 280 parts per million. We know this from glacial sampling. In November, 2007, CO2 concentration 384 ppm or 35% higher than 1832 ice core levels. Since the Industrial Revolution, humans have put one-half trillion tons of carbon into the atmosphere (Source: Univ. of California, La Jolla, CDIC). Everything surrounding us created from cheap energy. Further, given our population size, we will double CO2 levels inside forty years. This does not mean the planet’s destruction; it does mean humans may not be able to live here. Go figure that George Bush may look smart.
Another lovely example of an equilibrium disrupted is Tiger Woods. Tiger lived a quiet, married life winning golf tournaments and collecting sponsorships. Then the black swan - Rachel Uchitel's pussy - and equilibrium no more. Tiger will survive but his life not the same. Nassim, nor the Cal fans who booed Tiger at the Big Game two weeks ago, surprised.
Photo of the Space Shuttle Endeavor as it lights up the clouds on March 11, 2008. Photo by NASA.
